what's the proper turn play: a sort of math question

[mike l.]

15-30 hustler. who said hustler has no games? they were busy last night. of course only 3 yellow chip games and a monster larry flynt stud game (that looked like sklansky over there, but i didnt get a close look), but like a 5-6 6-12 games and lower limits as well. not bad at all..

anyway the game is good and i just got seated and i have K9h in the sb. there's some weird bb posted in front of the button and a bb on my left of course making it 3 blinds 9 handed table. there are 3-4 limpers as well and i toss in my chip and the flop is Ah4h4c. bb on my right bets, i raise, bb on my left (BBL) calls, rest fold, bb on my right (BBR) calls. confused yet?

the turn is 6h. it goes: BBR checks, i bet, BBL raises, BBR 3 bets. now what's my play? 4 bet (a cap), call, or fold? and why? and use math and odds and stuff.

[mikelow]

Let's look a what beats you:
pocket aces (very, very unlikely--so we'll eliminate that one)
44--one way to make that hand.
A4--six ways to make that one.
66--three ways to make that one.
So ten hands (in reality) beat you. You beat a smaller flush and and a four without an ace.

But the problem is you have two opponents who have raised. It's close, but I would fold the top flush.

[SittingBull]

[Hat Trick]

You've got to call and check call the river for one bet. You could easily be up against Aces up trips, the Q flush or even some idiot with 57 looking at the str8 draw. You just sat down, another reason to see to the end is to see how these guys play. With two other opponents you will probably see a showdown anyway but you never know. The fact that only 10 hands can beat you, the size of the pot and the knowledge that you will gain from a showdown make it a pretty clear call to me. If the river is raised, that's another story. You would need to seriously consider a laydown there, especially if the other player had already called (so you could see the showdown).

[mike l.]

i capped it. i felt BBR had a flush draw she had bet the flop with and now made and that BBL had a 4, but was not necessarily full. my 4 bet forced BBL to fold his 4 because he feared he was drawing dead and BBR crying called my turn bet and then my river bet when a blank fell. she had Q high flush.

i never really considered folding, i thought it was an interesting decision though whether or not to cap the turn or smooth call and let BBL in.

[Tommy Angelo]

"44--one way to make that hand.
A4--six ways to make that one.
66--three ways to make that one."

Does that method of problem solving have any use on the turn? IOW, if I have quads against a reasonable player and there is a straight flush possible, and we get into a raising war on the turn, does it matter anymore that there is only one way to make the hand that beats me? IOW, if there were two possible straight flushes, should I really stop raising sooner solely because of that?

Tommy

[mikelow]

BBL's fold was terrible. BBR should have folded as her hand was drawing dead. Easy to see afterwards.

So you were representing a full house, eh?

[mikelow]

[SoBeDude]

Good thread, nice hand, and well played.

Its so easy to imagine monsters under the bed sometimes, especially in this situation where you have so many blinds in the hand that could easily have had the crap to make a monster.

I'd still like to see someone do the probabilities on this, to see if going to showdown is mathmatically correct (which I think it probably is).

-Scott

[elysium]

hi mike
there is little info to go on here, and i won't lie to you and tell you that you should call. you're getting roughly about 4.5 to 1 or so on the call, but there are at least 7 cards that hurt you requiring the fold instead on the river. this is the problem here, the remaining cards that can come on the river. no good here mike. you're at least 1 in 8 that a bad card will hit. you're roughly only about 4-1 against your being in the lead.

and here's the real bad thing here mike, you can't call, you must raise to drive out the over-call. but if you sense that you may get the fold, and i'm sure you don't sense that, but if you do, then go ahead and raise. now you're getting better odds and also won't face an over-call. but mike, that's the math of this one, and i like saving the fight for better battles than this. i'm not sure though, i'ma guessin. good post.