#1
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Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
If you see a flop with 45-9T, what is the probability that you flop an OESD or a straight?
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#2
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
flopping a straight 1.3%
flopping an 8 out straight draw 10.5% I think |
#3
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
For an OESD (not double gutshot), I come up with:
3 * (16 * 40)/C(50,3) = ~9.8% |
#4
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
Someone check my math here . . . I believe the odds against flopping a str8 or OESD are 7.5 to 1 against. The probability of this event is 1/8.5 or approx 12%.
The math. Lets take 45 as an example for an OESD you need either a 2,3 3,6 or 6,7 on the flop. there are 16 combinations of each of these two card combos for a total of 48 combinations. Each of these 48 combinations can combine with the 48 unseen cards left in the deck to give you 2304 flops which give you an OESD or a str8 (some of the 48 remaining cards complete your str8). There are 19,600 flops possible. Therefore the odds against flopping a str8 or OESD are (19600 - 2304)/2304 = 7.5 to 1. A more intresting number to consider when looking at hands like 45 preflop would be to calculate the # of flops which give you a str8, OESD, two pair, trips, boat, or quads. I think the odds for this are between 5 to 1 and 6 to 1 against. |
#5
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
The problem with your math is it includes the odds of actually flopping the straight itself...not just the draw. Hence the 40 in my calculation vs. your 48.
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#6
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
I thought that is what the poster asked for. The odds for flopping either the str8 or the OESD
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#7
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
Thx.. so with a SC you should have about 4-1 on flopping a good draw?
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#8
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
Define good draw. Didn't realize suited had entered the equation.
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#9
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
I'd be real cautious about counting flush and flush draws into the equation because you can hit your flush and lose to a higher flush, esp. with 45s.
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#10
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Re: Probability for flopping OESD/straight with connectors
The original post was just for the straights.
Higher flush is a possibility yes, but I just want some general idea of how often you flop a straight or flush draw with SC. Even though you sometimes run into higher flushes I would still count a low flushdraw as a good draw |
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