Hello! Decision ??? At my casino,if your table...

[SittingBull]

and seat is selected U win 50.00. [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
However,U are giving the opportunity to win an ADDITIONAL 100.00 as follows: [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
3 five-card hands are dealt faced down.
If U choose the WINNING hand U win the ADDITIONAL 100.00.
If U do not select the winning hand,then U lose 25.00 of your ORIGINAL 50.00 . [img]/forums/images/icons/mad.gif[/img]

Should U "Play the game" for another 100.00 OR just take the sure win of 50.00?? [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img] Assume ALL ties are in your favor.
My reasoning is as followsneglecting all ties)
The probability of picking the winning hand is 1/3 and of picking a loser is 2/3.
So your EV =(1/3)(100)-(2/3)(25)=+16.66... [img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img]
However,if U do not play, then
EV=(3/3)(50)-(0/3)(50)=+50.00... [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
So it seems as if NOT playing is MORE profitable --although BOTH situations would be profitable.
Hmmm
Happy Pokering, [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
SittingBull