River raise/fold with overpair

wheelz · #1 09-02-2005, 12:46 AM

Too much or just right? Villain is 19.6/15.2/1.8

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.66 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.33 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.33 BB

rudedog78 · #2 09-02-2005, 01:29 AM

Gotta call that reraise, it's too likely that he has T8 TJ or J8... I could see a 3 bet turn also and bet after he checks or calls after he bets out the river.

BradL · #3 09-02-2005, 03:26 AM

The river is the best card you could hope for aside from a king. The raise is good and as uncomfortable as the reraise may make you folding the river here is terrible, you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

-Brad

flawless_victory · #4 09-02-2005, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]cmon he threebet the river. assuming he can read the board, heros hand is not good. the vast majority of the time LOL.

donny5k · #5 09-02-2005, 04:08 AM

Is it entirely inconceivable that villain has a worse hand 10% of the time?

The Truth · #6 09-02-2005, 08:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The river is the best card you could hope for aside from a king. The raise is good and as uncomfortable as the reraise may make you folding the river here is terrible, you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

-Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

so you would cap it off?

#7 09-02-2005, 08:45 AM

Is the villain semi-bluff raising twice in a row?
Does the villain think that you are trying to push him off his hand by three-betting the flop and betting the river?
Is your hand really worth two bets on the river? More importantly, is it worth three? On the other hand, is it worth one bet, or close to one bet?

I think your hand is worth maybe three quarters of a bet on the river. You will sometimes be shown AJ, but if the villain has any brain cells he hears you telling him that you can beat top pair. If the river goes two bets, I don't think you are going to be shown one pair very often. If it goes to three, you are in trouble. Given all this, what are you hoping to accomplish by raising? Are you hoping to push your opponent off of two pair? To convince him that you have Q9, or a full house or something? Unless your opponent can make some very tough folds on the river for one last bet, I think you are not going to get the fold you are looking for. In other words, just call the first bet on the river. You have a very, very thin value call. Any extra bets you put in cannot be helping you.

wkm

UMTerp · #8 09-02-2005, 10:43 AM

A fold is horrible here. Calling the river for one bet is far superior to raise/fold. You'll be shown a conterfeited two pair often enough for a crying call to be profitable. Chances are you're beat, but not 90% of the time.

rigoletto · #9 09-02-2005, 11:42 AM

Don't raise the river if you can't call a 3-bet.

wheelz · #10 09-02-2005, 12:36 PM

I'm raising the river because I just counterfeited two pair, which is what I was pretty sure he had.

In the actual hand I did call the 3-bet, but I didn't know if I really should... most people seem to think yes. He had Q9.