3/6 6m AA river decision

jason_t · #1 08-31-2005, 10:10 PM

UTG is 52/15/2 and was routinely open raising J9o etc.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (8.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero

aK13 · #2 08-31-2005, 10:14 PM

I would call. I think you will see a bluff at least 10% of the time from this opponent given your read. But let me guess, you folded and he showed AJ.

baronzeus · #3 08-31-2005, 10:16 PM

This is a great card for him to bluff on. Easy call.

jba · #4 08-31-2005, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great card for him to bluff on. Easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

for the same reasons, it is a great card for him to value raise marginal hands (like 2 pair) without fear of a 3-bet.

Jake (The Snake) · #5 08-31-2005, 10:19 PM

Folding here would be horrible from what I've seen so far at 3/6 short.

Everybody thinks that bluffing works, and this is obviously a good bluff card.

It's also possible villain has just two pair.

jba · #6 08-31-2005, 10:23 PM

against an agressive opponent there are just too many set and 2-pair hands in this situation compared to how often he has a J here that we should call this last bet.

jason_t · #7 08-31-2005, 10:28 PM

Folding never crossed my mind.

jba · #8 08-31-2005, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding never crossed my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think we need a better read to go this far.

is he definitely going to pay off with two pair?

is he definitely not going cap without a J?

jason_t · #9 08-31-2005, 10:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding never crossed my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think we need a better read to go this far.

is he definitely going to pay off with two pair?

is he definitely not going cap without a J?

[/ QUOTE ]

wtsd = 41.46% and river aggression = 2.75. I didn't really have a more specific read than those datamined stats as it was early in the session.

SGS · #10 08-31-2005, 11:10 PM

I get really upset and make a crying call. I am not good enough to lay this down heads up.

SGS