Blackjack probability question

[lil'greenmonkey]

Can someone tell me the probablity of winning $500 if you play with perfect basic strategy betting $10 (no card counting) in Las Vegas? How about if you play badly and the house edge is 2-5%?

I have someone willing to bet me that he will do this on our next Vegas trip. I know this is a good bet for me, but I'm interested in knowing how good [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks,

Marc