Strange river question - 20/40

[DrGutshot]

CO here is slightly more LAG than TAG, but not out of control. Stats were around 25/15 fullhanded, 2.2 postflop aggro. This means that a river raise bluff was possible from him, but maybe I could fold to it anyways? Also, for what it's worth, I paused a good 15 seconds before finally chosing my action - maybe he would be more likely to bluff raise after that?

I raise 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] after UTG folds, folds to CO who coldcalls, BB also calls. 3 to the flop.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet???, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet hoping I'm charging a king (he's not folding any other pair here), CO calls again.

River 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

?

Thanks,

-DrG

[elindauer]

Yuck.

Betting the flop is poor. You are basically hoping that nobody has a card higher than an 8. Not likely.

Betting the turn is god awful. There's no way you can get a fold. You think you're charging a king? What king does a 25 VPIP player coldcall with that is still unpaired on a QJT board?? You think he's coldcalling K...8! Come on.

On the river, you make your crap straight and still don't have a hand worth getting excited about. Would he have just called the flop with top 2 pair? Would he coldcall QJ in the first place? About the only hands you can beat are AQ and AJ. I doubt he'll bet these, so my instinct is to check to him and fold if he bets.

Good luck.
Eric