The Gr8 H8 of being donkbet

[DrGutshot]

SB here is a wacky player - roughly 65/30/1 for you stats people. I wish I could provide a decent read - but he has basically no clear patterns. He has check/called with mid-undercards, gutshots. He has bet out small pairs, draws, really whatever he feels like, he does.

I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP, folds to him in the SB and he auto-calls. BB folds.

Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He quickly bets - getting 6:1, now what?

It is pretty safe to assume that he will bet the turn 100% of the time if I call, he may check if an ace falls, I'm not sure. I'd love to get some input - and hopefully some mathematical analysis if possible - assuming things like he would bet out a ten here 100% of the time, along with hands like Q8.

Thanks,

-DrG

[vmacosta]

I'd peel one off and fold turn UI (raise obviously if K or Q hits). Folding here wouldnt be awful but these types generally pay off handsomely on the big bet streets.

[ QUOTE ]
SB here is a wacky player - roughly 65/30/1 for you stats people. I wish I could provide a decent read - but he has basically no clear patterns. He has check/called with mid-undercards, gutshots. He has bet out small pairs, draws, really whatever he feels like, he does.

I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP, folds to him in the SB and he auto-calls. BB folds.

Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He quickly bets - getting 6:1, now what?

It is pretty safe to assume that he will bet the turn 100% of the time if I call, he may check if an ace falls, I'm not sure. I'd love to get some input - and hopefully some mathematical analysis if possible - assuming things like he would bet out a ten here 100% of the time, along with hands like Q8.

Thanks,

-DrG

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This is a horrible flop for your hand, I dont care what type of opponent you are against, you should fold the flop. Theres no where else you can go here.

If you make these assumptions the hand is easy:

1) has you beat now
2) will bet the turn no matter what falls, call a raise and check/call the river
3) K/Q outs are clean.
4) The running straight draw isn't significant.

Then you're about a 7-1 dog to improve on the turn and are getting 12-1 odds.

Given how extremely good those odds are, I'd say this is a call even if you drop the assumptions I mentioned.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Given the wackiness of the opposition, who could be betting almost anything here (underpairs come to mind on this hand), I peel one. If the flop was two-tone, I muck without a second thought.

TSP

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If you make these assumptions the hand is easy:

1) has you beat now
2) will bet the turn no matter what falls, call a raise and check/call the river
3) K/Q outs are clean.
4) The running straight draw isn't significant.

Then you're about a 7-1 dog to improve on the turn and are getting 12-1 odds.

Given how extremely good those odds are, I'd say this is a call even if you drop the assumptions I mentioned.

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Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

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If you make these assumptions the hand is easy:

1) has you beat now
2) will bet the turn no matter what falls, call a raise and check/call the river
3) K/Q outs are clean.
4) The running straight draw isn't significant.

Then you're about a 7-1 dog to improve on the turn and are getting 12-1 odds.

Given how extremely good those odds are, I'd say this is a call even if you drop the assumptions I mentioned.

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Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

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There are 6 small bets in the pot right now. On the turn, given that my assumption that he bet/calls it, that's 2 big bets earned, so that makes 10 total small bets earned. On the river you earn one more big bet for a total of 12. Sound?

The real flaw in my argument is that the assumptions are all unsafe. However, given how obvious the call is if they were safe, I think the call is still correct in the actual situation.

[TimM]

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Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

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There are 6 small bets in the pot right now. On the turn, given that my assumption that he bet/calls it, that's 2 big bets earned, so that makes 10 total small bets earned. On the river you earn one more big bet for a total of 12. Sound?

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No, because it costs you 2 more small bets when you miss on the turn.

If miss the turn, you probably have just enough odds to call the turn bet if you assume your 6 outs are good and he will always lose 2 big bets on the river when you hit. (5-1 on turn call, plus 2 bets implied = 7-1). But these are very optimistic assumptions.

I would call here. Most people I would raise but I doubt that he folds and with a guy like it is impossible to figure out what exactly he has as of yet. I agree with thr responses above if a k-q-or even an ace hit raise.

Buffro
patexashold-em.com

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
SB here is a wacky player - roughly 65/30/1 for you stats people. I wish I could provide a decent read - but he has basically no clear patterns. He has check/called with mid-undercards, gutshots. He has bet out small pairs, draws, really whatever he feels like, he does.

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This sounds exactly like the kind of guy I'd consider raising on this flop, if he is really passive enough to let me check behind on the turn.