A king when an ace comes on the turn

Cosimo · #1 08-26-2005, 02:57 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

BB is 32/6, generally passive post tho bluffs the river constantly; I've made a bit of money off of him when he raises my two pair/trips/etc. UTG if 54/10, and I haven't been paying him too much mind because he seems to play stupid passive. MP1 is 54/0, and button is 62/5. Best table I had all night, as far as competition goes.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

No flush draws, but who knows what these guys do?

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero ...

There's four opponents. Normally I'd bet out, but I've been called down to the river a few times on this table only to get raised there by someone that flopped a set. I chose to check-fold; too weak-tight? Bet/call? Bet/fold?

aK13 · #2 08-26-2005, 03:10 AM

Value bet.

Nilbud · #3 08-26-2005, 05:00 AM

I would bet this on the turn. There's a good chance none of them have an ace. If you get raised, against these opponents I'd probably fold the river UI.

SavageMiser · #4 08-26-2005, 05:06 AM

Bet it. A check practically screams "I don't have an ace!" and at least one out of four donkeys will notice and take a shot.

Eeegah · #5 08-26-2005, 05:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: 22.5147 % 21.34% 01.17% { KsTc }
Hand 2: 11.5955 % 10.81% 00.78% { random }
Hand 3: 21.9606 % 20.36% 01.60% { * }
Hand 4: 21.9638 % 20.36% 01.60% { * }
Hand 5: 21.9654 % 20.37% 01.60% { * }

We'd need all four opponents to call for this to be for value, and I don't think that's going to happen.

Even so, you have to bet out here to keep the initiative. If raised, you have five outs and should have odds to call one bet but not two.

* (Using any suited, offsuit broadways, pocket pairs and offsuit ace)

SavageMiser · #6 08-26-2005, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
We'd need all four opponents to call for this to be for value, and I don't think that's going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no numbers guy, but won't you gain equity if one or more fold? You won't stay at 21 percent. Or am I totally missing the point?

Eeegah · #7 08-26-2005, 06:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We'd need all four opponents to call for this to be for value, and I don't think that's going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no numbers guy, but won't you gain equity if one or more fold? You won't stay at 21 percent. Or am I totally missing the point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm, good point. I'm not sure how that affects it either, but if one of the non-BB folks fold we improve to 33% equity, which would justify a value bet.

Of course we're all in agreement of betting out anyway so regardless of motive I guess it's a moot point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cosimo · #8 08-27-2005, 01:01 AM

Results:

I check/called the turn; river was a Ten and MHIG. No-one even had an ace!