21 Day War over, "mopping up" begins!

[Jedi Poker]

It's truly amazing how quickly the Coalition has made powerless the Saddam Regime. As of April 9, 2003 - only 21 days after the war began - the objective of "regime change" has indeed been achieved. The Coalition is now the de facto regime while uncoordinated command-less and control-less elements of the previous regime have in fact become the outsiders. In other words, the Coalition is the Government while remnants of the Saddam regime have become a band of rebels.

And now, "mopping up" begins. Ironically, this phase presents more risk to the lives of individual American soldiers (who effectively are the police force of Baghadad) in the field. This is so because the temporary absence of a central government makes it so that there is no real identifiable enemy. Just random groups of suicidal thugs fighting for a leader that no longer leads.

To summarize: After 21 Days of fighting, the war is finally over but the more dangerous (in terms of risk to the lives of the individual American soldier) phase of mopping up has begun. I hope the Coalition declares martial law as soon as possible. I also hope that they introduce a food (or money) for guns program - this move should eliminate a lot of guns from circulation very quickly, thus lowering the risk for the US soldiers and to the UN and Red Cross personell that should be moving in soon.

I hope, though, that the Coalition delays the official declaration of victory for months using "extreme dangers during the mop up phase" as an excuse to keep the UN at arms length for a while. In fact, they should declare victory only - and only - after at least 200 US companies have already been locked into juicy long-term contracts to fix infrastructure and exploit Iraq's oil resources. The fact is, the US risked blood and money while the others didn't. And it has to be paid for doing so! The Iraqis will be happy because this will create jobs. By allowing US companies to jumpstart the Iraqi economy, perhaps the US economy can be jumpstarted as well. Crisis is opportunity.

[Graham]

"they should declare victory only - and only - after at least 200 US companies have already been locked into juicy long-term contracts to fix infrastructure and exploit Iraq's oil resources. The fact is, the US risked blood and money while the others didn't. And it has to be paid for doing so!"

This is the worst idea possible!
So you think Iraq is a conquered country and the booty of war can now be divvied up? Paid?! Paid by who and why? The coalition decided themselves to go in; no 3rd party asked them to do it.

The purpose was to oust Saddam's regime to make the world safer, no? That's why the coalition went in, isn't it? I guess I was mistaken; I didn't realise it was an armed stick-up.

[Graham]

As an aside, it is likely to be mopping up mainly from now, but Iraq still has tens of thousands of troops in the Sunni heartland and northern Iraq - which the coalition does not control (even if much of Baghdad has pretty much fallen - though not all under coalition control even there). There's the suggestion that a last meaningful stand may occur at Tikrit, Saddam's birthplace and fiercely loyal spiritual home of his regime. The 4th Infantry are currently moving towards Tikrit.

G

[Cyrus]

(I was looking forward to put up a post for Jedi Poker, titled "Saddam to Jedi: Too Many!", tomorrow, on the 22nd day of the war, but it won't happen.)

I concede that the war is over today, even though militarily it might not be that way at all. Just came back from watching the Saddam Hussein statue in central Baghdad being toppled over on live TV and the spectacle was as significant as the Twin Towers going down all over the world.

So, in my book, the worst is past. A number of Americans will be killed in the months to come, just like they are killed, as we speak, in pacified Afghanistan. But the war is over and from the actions of the American administration, and the reactions of the Arab states (none of them a democracy, bar Lebanon) we shall see where this will go. And whether the whole thing will be dressed, however flimsily, with a vestige of legitimacy. Powell must have Anan's mobile number.

An obvious remark : The United States is at a position right now whereby it can ram through a tough and radical solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If Bush surpasses his weaknesses as a leader and proves he's able to seize the day, well, then we might witness a momentous shift in the Middle East map. We just might. And a real one, not just a change in soldiery.

[Jedi Poker]

Dell Computers, Apple Computer, Microsoft, IBM, Cisco, Compaq and other American hi-tech firms can create a lot of Iraqi jobs once the US government gives them long-term contracts (and keep hi-tech firms from Anti-Coalition countries out) during the mopping up phase.

Various American contractors, architectural and design firms, and engineering firms can create a lot of Iraqi jobs once the US government has given them the opportunity to pre-empt long-term contracts to rebuild the Iraq infrastructure during the mopping up phase in which firms from Anti-Coalition/Anti-Iraqi Freedom nations are kept out.

American oil retailers, refiners, drilling equipment makers, tanker operators, and other oil related businesss can create a lot of Iraqi jobs once the US government has granted them exclusive contracts to redevelop the second richest oil producing country in the world.

United Airlines and American Airlines (both direct victims of 9/11), and other US airlines can create a lot of Iraqi jobs when the US government gives them first priority in locking up gates in the Baghdad International Airport.

UPS, Fedex, and other US-based carriers can create a lot of Iraqi jobs once the US government has allowed them to pre-empt Iraq's delivery system during the mopping up phase in which all firms based in Anti-Coalition/Anti-Iraqi Freedom countries have been kept out for the sake of their "safety".

Ford and GM, but not Chrysler (it is owned by the German Daimler-Benz), can create a lot of Iraqi jobs once the US government has given them the opportunity to be the first to lock in the most favorable location, raw materials and labor resources for auto production and assembly inside Iraq....and domestic distribution as well.

In short, many US companies can be given the opportunity to lock in business inside Iraq during the "neverending" mopping up phase during which foreign companies are kept out for their own safety. The Iraqi people are going to benefit the most through new job creation. Some local Iraqi entrepreneurs can also benefit when they build related and supporting industries that complement the US businesses that have locked into long-term contracts and first mover market, production, and distribution advantages inside Iraq. We are afterall in Iraq to help the Iraqi people not ourselves.

[Graham]

Snip: long post about how the US can ensure US corporations help themselves to benefits from upcoming Iraq rebuilding/restructuring.

"...We are afterall in Iraq to help the Iraqi people not ourselves."

[nicky g]

Iraq is one of the most technologically advanced nations in the Middle East (probably the most). Many of these contracts could be given directly to Iraqi firms. There are plenty of engineers etc there. But no; they'll be given to Bush chums. And the Iraqis will have to foot the bill with their own oil.It's been disgusting to watch the US, the UK, France and Russia squabble about who these contracts should go to, each desperate for a piece of pie. Whenever possible, they should go to Iraqis.

[Graham]

I don't think you've considered it - from your posts in this thread - but a big concern in the aftermath of Saddams downfall is how the restructuring of Iraq is viewed in the eyes of the Arab world. Stability in the middle east won't be promoted by the US being seen as exploiting this situation. Your priority of trying to get a buck out of the situation, instead of true political improvements in the region, is exactly what will generate further cynicism, suspicion and distrust of US motives.

[Graham]

reminds me of the cartoon in the washington post a couple of days ago, with bush and his generals sitting round a table with a military map of Iraq. cheney is also there and rolling a miniature Haliburton truck among the tanks, while Bush turns to him and says: "Not yet, Dick."

[adios]

Actually my understanding of the Iraqi economic system is that under Hussein privitization of business and free markets were sorely lacking. Iraq had a planned economy where products, production quotas, prices, etc. were scheduled from a central planning authority. There's a very good article today in the Wall Street Journal (front page, headline article) about the economic problems and challenges that lie ahead in Iraq. The truth of the matter is that the Iraqi economic situation is a mystery due to the secrative nature of the Hussein regime. Hussein rightly or wrongly refused to divulge economic data and thus spurned all economic assistance from such organizations as the IMF. The oil production numbers are better known since due to the food for oil program still Hussein smuggled much oil out of the country for his own benifit. Now if you want to have a free market economy, with privitization of businesses in Iraq (and I concede that the Iraqis themselves may not want this) you'll have to have capital formation and investment to establish them. I think it's ludicrous to condemn the USA for exploiting Iraq at this juncture. Now France, Germany, and Russia are another story. For one thing I think it would be a great gesture by these three nations if they decided to forgive the debt that they are owed by Iraq. After all the debts were incurred by an illegitimate regime. Also any and all contracts established by the illegitimate Hussein regime with these three countries are null and void. While we're at it I think that war reparation payments ought to be declared null and void or at least severely reduced.