Kinda like that poll question everyone's been yellin about

[Dave D]

***** Hand History for Game 2593581442 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:15135844 Level:12 Blinds (500/1000) - Thursday, August 25, 01:21:32 EDT 2005
Table $34,000 Guaranteed(433171) Table #11 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: clevelandohd ( $17984 )
Seat 3: dogling ( $11499 )
Seat 5: Poorichard ( $10122 )
Seat 10: neffman ( $34367 )
Seat 2: jhill_madami ( $15513 )
Seat 4: CrashCapt ( $7250 )
Seat 6: Tanny111 ( $603 )
Seat 7: iGotdHang ( $7238 )
Seat 9: zukes2000 ( $5940 )
Trny:15135844 Level:12
Blinds (500/1000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to dogling [ Ad Kd ]
Poorichard folds.
Tanny111 folds.
iGotdHang folds.
zukes2000 folds.
neffman folds.
clevelandohd raises [2600].
jhill_madami is all-In [15513]

Pretty sure I have to fold here. Anyone say otherwise?

[Hotrod0823]

I think the Button is pushing a large range of hands here. Most likely a mid pocket pair.

In the BB with AKs I am hard pressed to ever lay it down. I think im pushing in a heart beat.

[37offsuit]

This is almost certainly an isolation raise. The best you'll see opponent with here is QQ. KK or AA is going to be looking for more customers. I'd be more afraid of a smooth call. Push them soldiers in.

[DemonDeac]

had the CO player been trying to steal alot from that spot? if so, then teh button is most likely trying a resteal. im calling this cuz of the range of hands the other two could possibly have.

[A_PLUS]

15xBB, 7xBB in dead money. Why are you pretty sure you have to fold AKs? I am interested in reading your thought process, not just 'I am either way behind or a coin flip'.

[Dave D]

I hadn't seen either player try a lot of steals or anything. I rated them both as reasonably good players, though I hadn't seen that many of their hands, but I hadn't seen any monkey business from them either.

I probably allowed the other thread to influence me here too much. At this point we're definatly in the money, though early stages (maybe second or third level of money). I simply didn't put the original raisor on a blind steal, I just hadn't seen him do it too much, and a 2.5x the blind raise seems to be asking for action too. I was getting ready to push back though when the other guys pushes. At this point I'm simply thinking one of them must have a high pair, most likley the pusher, and I'm most likely going to have the original raisor call my AI call. If one of them has a high PP (nevermind aces or kings) I'm a huge dog, and I may get lucky and get an even EV call out of this, but that was looking like my best case scenario.

So far I'd judged my talent as better compared to everyone else and I'd rather take my 11.5 BBs and find a better spot. I'd been allowed to steal most of the times I'd tried, and was getting paid with my good hands. So I decided the marginal situation just wasn't worth it.

[CardSharpCook]

That is interesting thinking, but I see several places where I disagree. First, I dont think it is a reasonable assumption to say that the original raiser is going to call. He has a stack size that allows him to get away from this hand, and there is no reason to believe he doesn't have one of several hundred blind stealing hands that CANNOT call a raise (33,QJs, KTo, etc etc). Second, ok, I agree that the button has a quality hand, but we have to put our opponent on a range of hands. It is not sufficeint to say, "probably a high PP". Doesn't the opponent do the same thing with AK, AQ, AJ, and then possibly KQ, KJ? If you believe your opponent is a rock, then make up your own range of hands and run the numbers for that. But I assure that no opponent is tossing AK/AQ to a Co raise. Now, you have 10BBs. While you are not desperate by any means, you are looking for opportunities to double up. This doesn't mean calling an AI with 55, but it sure as hell means calling with AKs vs a push from any position. Also, with 10BBs, I don't know what your general strategy is, but I think we can agree that all of your future blind steals will be pushes. You are going to need to have one of these called to get back in the game, and the one that is called - you aren't likely to be ahead. This is an opportunity where you might actually be ahead, but you sure as hell aren't far behind. This is the opportunity you've been waiting for. Take it.

CSC

[A_PLUS]

I misread the hand. I thought you had 17K, not 11K. I can't construct a reasonable range where I am laying down AKs here.

1st raise means nothing, very likely a steal
2nd raise probably means a good hand. But 'good' doesnt put him ahead of AKs.

There is also a % of the time that this is a steal-resteal situation. 2.5xBB steals are common at this point with no antes.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
First, I dont think it is a reasonable assumption to say that the original raiser is going to call. He has a stack size that allows him to get away from this hand, and there is no reason to believe he doesn't have one of several hundred blind stealing hands that CANNOT call a raise (33,QJs, KTo, etc etc).
CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this was a read based on his play, 2.5x is weak for a blind steal, it seemed to ask for action, especially when he's first in. I also hadn't seen him try this much.

[ QUOTE ]
Second, ok, I agree that the button has a quality hand, but we have to put our opponent on a range of hands. It is not sufficeint to say, "probably a high PP". Doesn't the opponent do the same thing with AK, AQ, AJ, and then possibly KQ, KJ? If you believe your opponent is a rock, then make up your own range of hands and run the numbers for that. But I assure that no opponent is tossing AK/AQ to a Co raise. Now, you have 10BBs. While you are not desperate by any means, you are looking for opportunities to double up. This doesn't mean calling an AI with 55, but it sure as hell means calling with AKs vs a push from any position. Also, with 10BBs, I don't know what your general strategy is, but I think we can agree that all of your future blind steals will be pushes. You are going to need to have one of these called to get back in the game, and the one that is called - you aren't likely to be ahead. This is an opportunity where you might actually be ahead, but you sure as hell aren't far behind. This is the opportunity you've been waiting for. Take it.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think the bottom line here is that I made the assumption that the OR would call either my call, or the pusher's raise. In retrospect, I may have assumed this in error as maybe his raise wasn't as suspicious as I thought. My point here though was more along the lines that I put *one* of them on a high pocket pair. If I'm assuming based on my read that they both call, then I'm crushed.

I think above all I let that other thread influence me too much, and I probably should have called. I was just uncomfortable with a raise, and a reraise and thought I had a good chance of waiting to get my money in with a better hand. As things turned out in this tourney I did, but I'm not being results based.

BTW I asked the pusher what he had later and he said AK. Maybe he did, maybe he didnt, but it seemed to fit.

Given two interested parties, even if you get HU, do you think you've got a full set of outs left (ie. an A or K is folded by the initial bettor)? If not, that greatly diminishes the value of AK.