simple push / fold question

[45suited]

Note that both poll responses stipulate that I am stupid in one form or another... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


Seat 9 is the button

Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: NatetheNuts ( $615 )
Seat 1: Ultima785 ( $1410 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $845 )
Seat 4: brandonave ( $620 )
Seat 9: seahawks4412 ( $1955 )
Seat 7: bienpotron ( $1180 )
Seat 8: ByoCraig ( $1375 )

Blinds(50/100)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Jc Ac ]
brandonave folds.
HERO is all-In [845]

[tigerite]

You can push this face-up for +$EV. Not a lot, but still.

[bennies]

there are 1276 starting hands in poka. You would hate to face 42 of them (AQ+, JJ+) You have 5 opponents left to act.

[tigerite]

Put it this way even if they call with every pair, AK, AQ, AJ and KQs it's still +EV.. and even more so if they call with KQo, KT and QTs.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
there are 1276 starting hands in poka. You would hate to face 42 of them (AQ+, JJ+) You have 5 opponents left to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posted this to see what the reasoning would be by those who don't like the push here.

By your above comment, are you advocating pushing or folding?

[AlcateL]

pooooooooooooooosh

[bennies]

I voted fold but I forgot you get 150 chips, not 100. This swings it, I'm sure it's a push, as tigerite said, even with your cards open...

[Ixnert]

I voted fold because I'm a douche and get nervous about pushing into that many people (and I hate AJ), thinking it was close, then ran the numbers, and it's not. Push.

Sorry I'm kinda a poker noob. Can someone explain how you guys are running these numbers? I understand the general idea, that even though hands like AK have him beat 70-30, the times that everyone folds increases the value of the push, but how exactly is this calculated? Thanks.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I'm kinda a poker noob. Can someone explain how you guys are running these numbers? I understand the general idea, that even though hands like AK have him beat 70-30, the times that everyone folds increases the value of the push, but how exactly is this calculated? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did it kind of back-of-the-envelope, since I'm at work and don't have SNGPT at hand to do it automatically, but approximately:

Assume that only hands that beat you call you, but all of those do. (This is usually, though not always, the worst case scenario.)

There are 42 hands that beat you badly (AQ+, JJ+), and another 54 that are slightly ahead of you (22-TT). Just consider the 42, since the coinflips aren't going to change the numbers much. (They actually work slightly in your favor, since the blinds make that a +chipEV situation.)

42 hands out of 1276 total is about 3.3%. The odds that one of the four hands left to act is in this set is (1-0.033)^4 = about 12%.

So about 88% of the time, you get the blinds without a fight, +150 chips.

When you get called, you're, aggregate, about a 3:1 dog. So about 9% of the time (12.5% * 3/4) you get called and lose, and about 3% of the time you get called and win. -825 chips when you lose, at least +875 when you lose. More likely +975 or +925, but take the worst case scenario.

87.5% * +150 = +132
9% * -825 = -74
3% * +875 = +26

132 + -74 + 26 = +84 chips. This is your chip EV. In reality, it'll be slightly higher than this, because you might get called by some hands you beat (smaller aces, KQ), and if you get called by a smaller pair you still have positive equity because of the blinds even though you're a slight dog.

Your $EV is a bit harder to figure out, but usually when your chip EV is this positive, your $EV will be positive as well, at least away from the bubble. Look at the favorite links post (sort by most views, it'll be near the top) for links on ICM if you're interested in detail on this.