Right Read?

[RutgersKev]

I was bonus clearing at Empire last night when this hand came up:

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">Villain Limps UTG8 folds Hero Raises in the BB Villian Calls</font>.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Bets Villain takes a few seconds before finally calling. I think he wanted to raise, but decided to just call. I don't think he was on a draw.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Bets, Villian Raises Hero calls

I really think I got him here, he wanted to raise his good hand on the flop, but waited to the turn, where I hit my card to give me top 2 pair. I just call looking to raise the river.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks. Villian Bets Hero raises, Villian Re-Raises

Opps. He must have a set.


Was I totally out of line by waiting till the river to raise? I would have lost (won) the same amount 4+1 bets compared to 2+3 bets.
Final Pot: 12.5 BBs

[ QUOTE ]
Was I totally out of line by waiting till the river to raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain limped UTG, so the only set he might have is 8s. Raise the turn.

[Nick C]

There are, unfortunately, a large number of combos (32 total) of KT (for an OESD on the flop) and T9 (with a slowplayed flopped straight) available, but worse two-pair hands are also certainly possible, in addition to a hand like AT.

In the heat of the hand, I would probably 3-bet the turn. But just calling the raise instead and then bet-calling the river unimproved might be better. I'm not sure.

One consideration is how inclined you think Villain might be to check behind his weaker hands on the river. (My thinking regarding a river stop-n-go is that I'd like to avoid going to 5 BBs on the big streets when I'm beat and also would prefer not to have the river check through if I am in fact best.)

Against a hand like QJ or AJ, your line will in fact often win more than my stop-n-go idea would. (It sort of depends on how Villain might react to the stop-n-go, though.) But QJ/AJ is only 12 combos total. We should throw A8 and maybe ace-rag and Q8/J8 into the mix as well, but the straight possibilities do have me concerned.

If you think Villain is an ace-rag player who will raise the turn with just top pair, then I think I like a turn 3-bet.

[aces_dad]

If by read you mean how long he took to act on each betting round, I wouldn't hold too much stock in these reads. He could be playing multiple tables or anything else which determines how long he takes to act.

The only thing I don't like about your line is that if you're ahead and villian checks behind on the river, you've left money on the table. I understand you don't have the nuts here, but with the nuts in this case I three bet the turn. Some villians may also cap turn/river with hands that you beat, whereas few will three bet to a river c/r.

[Fantam]

On the flop, villain may have been deciding whether to call with a draw. With high cards on the flop, I dont think you can rule that possibility out.

When villain raised the turn, I think that he probably just made a straight. Perhaps with KT.

Anyway I would still have called villain's turn bet. But I would not have check/raised the river. I would just have called his river bet, incase I had the best hand.

I expect that villain had KT for a straight.

[GTSamIAm]

3-bet the turn. Call a cap and fold river.

[DontRaisePlz]

Fold the river? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[RutgersKev]

bump

[Duerig]

I would 3 bet the turn, here's why.

If you 3 bet the turn and the villian caps, you probably end up check-calling the river. That's 5 BB. Your line also got 5 BBs into the pot.

Either way you put in 5 bets on the turn and river. However, if you improve on the river (spike an A or a Q) you're going to be glad that you went 4 bets on the turn. The villian will most likely happily cap the river with a smaller boat and you end up with 2 capped BB streets. That's good news for you. If you don't spike an A or a Q the turn cap by villain lets you get to a showdown by paying only 1 BB on the river. So you pay 5 BB when you are behind and put in 8 BB when you are ahead.

Now if villain has a smaller 2 pair, you probably won't get him to cap the river. If villain has a smaller 2 pair though, you definitely want to 3 bet the turn.

nice take