flopped set at 33

schwza · #1 08-23-2005, 10:26 AM

early, no reads at a 33. how's my line till now and what do i do on the turn?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t785)
UTG+2 (t345)
MP1 (t1165)
Hero (t725)
MP3 (t810)
CO (t1015)
Button (t955)
SB (t575)
BB (t885)
UTG (t740)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, 2 folds, Hero calls t30, 1 fold, CO raises to t90, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t60.

Flop: (t255) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (t255) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t100, hero?

wuwei · #2 08-23-2005, 10:37 AM

I think your line so far looks good. I would just call the turn and plan on leading any river for 2-300. I'm not too worried about villian having a flush draw, seems likely he would have bet the flop if he did. He might have picked up a gutter, but in general I don't think it's too dangerous to play it this way.

Unarmed · #3 08-23-2005, 10:41 AM

If you're going to C/R the flop all-in, I like it. Otherwise, just lead.
Easy raise on the turn. Villain has overcards or AA/KK. If you lose the overs right here its not that huge a mistake. If you don't stack AA/KK on this hand you will have made a MASSIVE mistake.

junkmail3 · #4 08-23-2005, 10:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think your line so far looks good. I would just call the turn and plan on leading any river for 2-300. I'm not too worried about villian having a flush draw, seems likely he would have bet the flop if he did. He might have picked up a gutter, but in general I don't think it's too dangerous to play it this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

That line makes it too easy for the villian to get away cheap.

You have to raise it here, small enough to keep him in the hand, but big enough to get the most chips.

I'm thinking between a raise to 200 (min) and 300.

Then you can lead the river for 1/2 - 1/3 pot and he'll come right along or raise you with an overpair. Unless he has an overpair to this flop, he'll fold the river unimproved. So, flat calling the turn is probably the second worst play (behind folding).

(I like the flop check. The villian's check on the flop looks like an AK/AQ missed flop trying to pull the turn continuation bet. This will induce plenty of bluffs from villian.)

downtown · #5 08-23-2005, 10:44 AM

I think the flop looks fine. I think the turn looks fine too, and I would call, and plan on leading the river for about 1/2-pot to pot.

An alternate line for me on the turn would be to lead for about t75, as this looks like just enough of a probe bet, like you don't want to risk too much more of your stack, that it may induce a bluff raise from villain's AK or overpair.

#6 08-23-2005, 10:46 AM

In general I would say that calling is wrong here.

If he has a monster and is slowplaying it, he will reraise you and you will get paid very good.

If he hasnt got anything, just two overs, which most often is the situation, he will most likely call a miniraise from your side, mostly because he has position on you on the river and he hopes to catch something.

Just calling means that you wont get paid as much. He wont call a bet from you on the river with a hand that he wont call a raise with on the turn.

junkmail3 · #7 08-23-2005, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to C/R the flop all-in, I like it. Otherwise, just lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if villian bet the flop for T100? Do you think raising all in here would really be the best play?

I would think villian would fold most hands here unless he had AA/KK, and even then ... for some reason, he may still fold that.

I would think a slower route would be the way to go on this hand. (though with the check raise, villin may think you're on a flush/straight draw ... but would still be able to get away from big overs.)

I would think a flop bet in this situation would too often be a continuation bet on villian's part, and playing it slower, and quietly binding him to the pot would get more chips in this situation (played over and over).

(And I did start 3 'paragraphs' with the same 3 words)
(oh, right, add a crazy face so people know that line was a joke [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

wuwei · #8 08-23-2005, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you lose the overs right here its not that huge a mistake. If you don't stack AA/KK on this hand you will have made a MASSIVE mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point.

schwza · #9 08-23-2005, 10:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What if villian bet the flop for T100? Do you think raising all in here would really be the best play?

I would think villian would fold most hands here unless he had AA/KK, and even then ... for some reason, he may still fold that.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahaha

bennies · #10 08-23-2005, 11:51 AM

If I want to make a weak probe bet then I prefer the flop to do it. AK should come over the top a good deal of the time.