Another AJ Hand

Asim · #1 08-23-2005, 09:59 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 (poster) checks, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

The main reason for pointing this out was to spark some discussion on a topic I have been pondering. A hand like AJs tends to be a top pair hand... you normally hit a pair 1/3 of the time... when the whole table is limping, you are beaten if you dont hit.

I was thinking, from late position, since most ppl who enter the pot from EP for one bet, will normally call the 2nd. With a PFR you are normally wanting to cut the playing field and play against a few people... when many players have already limped ahead of you, expecting them to call a 2nd bet, wouldnt you PFR be more of a pot sweetener for longshot draws to have the proper odds to call.. I was thinking, call preflop against a large field, and if you hit, bet and raise to lower pot odds for draws, making it a mistake to play. do you think that is a better strategy? or is a hand like this one of those "auto-raise".

Rev. Good Will · #2 08-23-2005, 10:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With a PFR you are normally wanting to cut the playing field and play against a few people...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not the reason why you make a PFR, it is just an additional bonus

davelin · #3 08-23-2005, 10:11 AM

Let's do some calculations. Let's say your hit your top pair hand 1/3 of the time. Let's also say that when you don't raise pre-flop, the drawer will fold because they're not getting the right odds to play on the flop. But when you do raise pre-flop, they will play with you to the end and out-draw you like 15% of the time (approximate for a 4-outer).

So you don't raise pre-flop = (1/3 * (6 SB) - 1 SB) - (2/3 * 1SB) = 1/3 SB average profit

You do raise pre-flop = (1/3 * (12 SB) - 2 SB) + ((.85 * (6 SB) - 3SB) - (.15 * (5SB)) - (2/3 * 2SB) = 2.52 SB average profit

(Someone please double-check my math here).

Asim · #4 08-23-2005, 10:19 AM

interesting... thats what I wanted to see.. thanks man!