all club flop, but I have straight draw...

britspin · #1 08-23-2005, 08:12 AM

I've tried to be honest about my thought processes. Opponenents are calling stations, 60% vpip, except for SB who's just joined table and on 2nd hand. No signs of post flop aggression from anyone.

I'm BB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG, MP2, MP3 and SB call, I check

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks to me.

My thoughts: Hmm. If someone has a flush draw, they'll call me here. Chance of a made flush? Could be out there. But hold on. These guys are calling stations. If I bet, They'll call with any club draws, then if I hit one of my 6 outs, I can feel confident - while getting out cheap if a club falls. I'll hear quickly if there's a made flush out there. Also, there's a (small) chance that betting will fold some poor made hands.

What the hell, If in doubt, bet.

I bet, UTG and MP2 call, MP3 and SB fold.

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

My thought: OK, I hit one of my 6 outs. Wahey! Looks like I've got 2 club draws (or perhaps a weak J) out against me. I'll bet. Then see what happens, made flushes love to c/r here.

I bet. UTG and MP2 call

River: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

My thought: Nothings changed. Club flush draws have missed. I'll Bet and be prepared to call a raise.

Thoughts on how I played this?

CourtJester · #2 08-23-2005, 08:35 AM

Your thought process seemed just fine. You know you pretty much only have 6 outs, and if you see much resistance you know to immediatly slow down. I say bet the river though, if your hand was good on the turn, its good on the river when that blank fell.

MATT111 · #3 08-23-2005, 08:37 AM

Would have played it the same way.

davelin · #4 08-23-2005, 09:39 AM

I would've check/called the flop.

britspin · #5 08-23-2005, 09:52 AM

That's what I wasn't sure of. I thought that if I bet flop and was raised, I could get off the hand if i hit my outs and was raised, but a check/call would leave me not knowing where I was.

What have i missed about the advantage of check/calling here? Is it simply that I get the chance at a free turn? I probably underestimated how often it'd be checked through from these players.

davelin · #6 08-23-2005, 09:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That's what I wasn't sure of. I thought that if I bet flop and was raised, I could get off the hand if i hit my outs and was raised, but a check/call would leave me not knowing where I was.

What have i missed about the advantage of check/calling here? Is it simply that I get the chance at a free turn? I probably underestimated how often it'd be checked through from these players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have the equity to bet here. I'd give your hand around something like 4-5 outs here since a club on either street dramatically cuts your chances to win here.

Actually given your number of outs, check/folding probably would've been bet given the pot size.

britspin · #7 08-24-2005, 05:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have the equity to bet here. I'd give your hand around something like 4-5 outs here since a club on either street dramatically cuts your chances to win here.

Actually given your number of outs, check/folding probably would've been bet given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funnily enough I was drawing dead, as MP2 had flopped the nuts.

Anyway, I'm interested by the argument for check-folding here. Assuming 1 bet and 1 call back to me it's 8-1 on flop, which is c. the 8.2-1 for 5 outs, so it turns out to be marginal. If that's the case, aren't I better off bet/folding? (OK, I then have 10-1, but we can assume that I'm much more likely to be dead already to a raise which changes the equation)

Innocentius · #8 08-24-2005, 06:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have the equity to bet here. I'd give your hand around something like 4-5 outs here since a club on either street dramatically cuts your chances to win here.

Actually given your number of outs, check/folding probably would've been bet given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funnily enough I was drawing dead, as MP2 had flopped the nuts.

Anyway, I'm interested by the argument for check-folding here. Assuming 1 bet and 1 call back to me it's 8-1 on flop, which is c. the 8.2-1 for 5 outs, so it turns out to be marginal. If that's the case, aren't I better off bet/folding? (OK, I then have 10-1, but we can assume that I'm much more likely to be dead already to a raise which changes the equation)

[/ QUOTE ]

I might be completely wrong, but I think check/fold is best. Here is my reasoning, please correct me if i'm wrong.

We can be fairly sure we don't have the best hand. A made flush could be out there, and it could be slowplayed, so we might not find out til late. It will be almost impossible to get a reasonably high club to fold before the river. We have six outs to a better hand. With a bet behind us, we get 7:1 odds to call. This is marginal with six outs. Finally, and this is what really makes me want to check/fold, if we catch one of our six outs, 1 time in 5 approximately, we will be killed by a club on the river. Thus our implied odds are worse than the direct pot odds.