Other Half of Ciaffone Article

[David Sklansky]

He recommends folding ace king when his one opponent raises his turn bet when he catches an ace and bets out a second time. The other cards are 973. (He raised preflop and got three calls. Then bet the flop and got one call behind him) He says it's not worth taking 9-1 even if he is a 7-1 dog on average against aces up, because he might be up against a set. True . He goes on to say that he is not worried about being raised bluffed by most players in 10-20 size games. OK. But there are two problems. One of course is that when players see him folding in spots like this they will start to get in their heads to make raise semibluffs on the turn even if they are not doing it now. Thus better to take slightly the worst of it to avoid these future dilemmas.

But the big error in Ciaffone's analysis is something else. He missed something. And because of what he missed his admonition to fold in this particular case is just terrible. Who can tell me what I am speaking of?

[J.R.]

The turn raiser may have called pre-flop with a big ace like AJs or AQs, called the flop with overcards and/or a backdoor flush draw and then raised top pair on the turn, so Ciaffone may be folding the best hand.

[Boris]

It's very possible you are being raised by A-Q, A-J, A-10.

[PokerPrince]

It's quite possible you're being raised by an inferior Ace that peeled for overcards on the flop. Many players will call the preflop raise with AQ,AJ,AT and raise the turn when one comes. You could be laying down the best hand and that would be disastrous.

PokerPrince

[elysium]

hi mr.sklansky
well, i think the player acting first has about an 11-1 opportunity to improve to A's over K's. that combined with the odds that he just might still have the lead would argue for calling. but the thing is, what if his opponent is raising to represent the A ? i would think that since the player acting first is holding an A, and there is an A on the board, the chances that the player acting last doesn't have an A but is only representing one, seem to justify a call.

or, the player acting last may be on a draw and think that the player acting first is representing the ace. whenever an A falls and a player comes to life, you've got to wonder if the ace has really helped.

[Ed Miller]

But the big error in Ciaffone's analysis is something else. He missed something. And because of what he missed his admonition to fold in this particular case is just terrible. Who can tell me what I am speaking of?

His opponent could easily (and perhaps is likely to) have a hand like AK, AQ, or AJ.

[hillbilly]

i think he may have missed a very nice opportunity to check-raise the turn.

[mikelow]

There is no substitute for real-time experience in live play, IMO. Every situation is a bit different. You have to know your opponents also.

[BruceZ]

His opponent could easily have an overpair, especially TT which picks up an inside straight draw, and is now raising to make Ciafone not bet the river or fold a better hand on the turn. He could also have AK and is trying to pick up the whole pot instead of splitting. He probably doesn't have a weaker ace because he should know Ciafone probably has a bigger one (ace that is) since he raised preflop.

[Kevin J]

There are 3 reasons you don't fold:

1. You might have the best hand.

2). If you don't have the best hand, you might outdraw your opponent.

And the one no one has mentioned yet...

3). Your opponent might check the river.

I think this last reason is often overlooked by weak/tightish types. They automatically assume it's going to cost them two more bets. But this isn't always the case and needs to be factored into the equation. IMO-