$109s - 22 Hand

Unarmed · #1 08-21-2005, 10:21 AM

No reads yet.
Nothing too interesting.
I'll drop it on the turn if he bets.
I'm calling pretty much anything on the river.
Posting it b/c I think the flop min-raise is honestly all that's required in situations like this.
Betting anything more is just spewing chips IMO. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t940)
UTG+2 (t1735)
MP1 (t985)
MP2 (t935)
MP3 (t295)
CO (t1135)
Button (t910)
SB (t1220)
Hero (t1025)
UTG (t820)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t45, 7 folds, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t100) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t45, Hero raises to t100, UTG+1 calls t55.

Turn: (t300) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

River: (t300) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Final Pot: t300

gumpzilla · #2 08-21-2005, 10:26 AM

Interesting. I kinda like it with all of the provisos you put on. I think the minraise on the flop with no more betting on later streets is going to induce a river bluff reasonably often, so I think it's important that you're planning on calling there. I do think a raise to 150 or so is more likely to make a 7 or an 8 fold - a lot of people just have a hard time folding to minraises - so I prefer that, but I think this line is fine.

ilikeaces · #3 08-21-2005, 10:42 AM

Me no likey. Check fold the flop

bigt439 · #4 08-21-2005, 10:49 AM

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Betting anything at all is just spewing chips IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that he is calling your raise 95% of the time regardless of his hand. Since your plan is to not put any more money in the pot, he's going to get to see the next two cards for free. Even a hand like 2 overs and a gutshot has tremendous equity against you since they're seeing two cards. Any pair obviously has you totally crushed and it's very possible he could have something like 44 or K7. Flush draws don't fold and they're ahead of you too.

So this means that you're almost never better than 40% to win the hand (obviously sometimes you are, but not much), and a fair amount of the time you are 10% to win the hand. Since you have already committed to not outplaying him I just don't think the numbers add up. I guess you snag a river bluff every once and a while for a nice bet, but you also pay random cards off on the end because you have no idea what he has.

I think this flop just gave way too many hands way too much equity against your hand, and gave some other hands total domination over it. Since he is almost never folding to this raise (for what it's worth I think a bigger raise is an even bigger mistake), I think you're making an error. Another thing I usually think about is I'd much rather have my 800 - 1000 chips than I would have the extra 1000 - 1200 chips; they're more useful for doubling up. Obviously not a deciding factor, but relevant.

ChuckNorris · #5 08-21-2005, 10:57 AM

I don't see the villain folding many hands they bet with to the miniraise. Definately not overcards or any straight draw. It is also tempting for them to call with questionable hands hands like almost any pair, as they have position and your miniraise looks a lot like a bluff, so they can safely call and hope for a cheap showdown.

Unarmed · #6 08-21-2005, 11:01 AM

Sorry, my post was unclear.
I shut down on the turn because one of his key cards fell.
Most turn cards I lead for half-2/3 pot.

brimstone1 · #7 08-21-2005, 11:02 AM

From what I gather, shouldn't you be further representing the straight on the turn?

After you raise the flop with 22, didn't your hand magically become JT, T6, or 65 [at least at the $109s]? (or two pair, a set, something more than "the" underpair)

Why wouldn't you bet your straight/hand here?

Without reads, why are we putting Villain on just a high card and not a 9, 8, 7? two pair, or some other hand higher than 22?

Are we putting him on AK-AT? (because of the pre-flop raise?)

WHAT THE CHRIST IS HAPPENING HERE?

The $109s confuse me :\

edit: Wouldn't it be even better if you bet when his key card fell? He knows you know he has face cards (the preflop bet), and he would assume you wouldn't bet a pair of 9s when the K fell, so wouldn't you betting out on the turn be a good play here?

Unarmed · #8 08-21-2005, 11:43 AM

Ok first off, this guy bet t45 into an insanely co-ordinated board. Its HU, but honestly, people just don't do that very often with strong hands. I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it. So I'm ahead, and there is no chance I'm folding here. F*ck that [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

So what should I do? Well, flat calling and checking the turn is bad, and I don't think I need to point why. Calling and leading the turn is better, but would I do that with two-pair, a flopped straight? Probably not, I'd raise the flop. So how much should I raise?

I don't think most typical 109ers will fold AK/AQ to a min-raise. I don't think they'll fold AK/AQ to a full pot raise either (or mathematically, the added times they fold is not worth the cost of the additional chips). Min-raising there isn't meant to fold out villain, its meant to see if he'll allow me to take control of the hand. If the turn blanks I can lead and most opponents will now drop their AK/AQ. It's weird, but they're more likely to dump on the turn because there's only one card left. It makes no sense, but thats the way fish typically think. As an aside, thats also why you should play your good hands quickly most of the time.

When the K hits, I'm either dead or still ahead. If he has the K and I bet, HE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. Perhaps on the flop he thought, oh sh*t this guy probably has two pair. Trust me, those thoughts will quickly evaporate if he hits his magical TPTK. In a cash/big tournament scenario against a thinking opponent, you can lead that turn and take them off the better hand on the river. Against the typical 109er, attempting to do that is outright suicide.

Anyway, the nice thing about the flop min-raise is people have been trained to think DANGER whenever they see it. So the odds of me being moved off the best hand on the turn are actually pretty low IMO. On the river its pretty obvious he has nothing, so I check and hope to snap off a stupid bluff.

bigt439 · #9 08-21-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, my post was unclear.
I shut down on the turn because one of his key cards fell.
Most turn cards I lead for half-2/3 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. I gotta say I still really don't like it. I think you bluff him off of a better hand very rarely (some 7's fold obviously, but I think they call more than we'd like in this situation) and thus get called down alot. The problem with the turn is that so many cards can help the villain and we really don't know which ones they are (since he can have so many hands). What do you do if an A,Q,J,T, or 6 comes? Since you shut down because of the K, I'd assume you'd shut down for those cards as they are all equally as scary.

What happens if you do make the lead and get called? I have to assume you're checking the river (please don't have plans for that too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). This gives him another chance to win the pot by betting with something like a busted QT.

I've really been attacking your line and it's not because I think it's stupid or anything. I understand your thinking. He made a somewhat standard raise and then what looked to be a weak continuation bet, why not attack it. I'm just saying that you're beat (even if by marginal hands that probably aren't folding) a decent amount of the time, and the times that you aren't your opponents have a lot of equity against you. You're usually pretty lost as to what hands your opponent has and you're bluffing out of position. I'm sure you know why bluffing out of position is extremely difficult and this doesn't seem to be the right situation to try it.

Without any reads I don't see a reason to risk these chips for what is very little reward (If your bluff works you have ~t1200, if it fails ~t700; obviously oversimplifying, but I maintain the difference between 1000 and 700 is much more meaningful than 1200 and 1000.)

gumpzilla · #10 08-21-2005, 12:09 PM

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Meh. I gotta say I still really don't like it. I think you bluff him off of a better hand very rarely (some 7's fold obviously, but I think they call more than we'd like in this situation) and thus get called down alot.

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One thing that I missed my first time reading this was that it was an UTG+1 raiser, so holdings with a 7 or 8 are pretty unlikely.