normal distribution potsize?

[rusty JEDI]

Hello probability forum.
I am a bonus whore and am interested in clearing bonus money quickly. At stars a 1/2 game has to reach $15 to count as an fpp, and I want to gain these as quick as possible. I understand i should be trying to find a good game and play optimally but id rather do that at sites im established at already with player notes and what not.

So here is what im looking for. The site tells you the average pot size. Now i want to use Z scores to find out the probability that a pot average of X will hit this magic $15 pot. My question is can i assume pot size is normally distributed. And to standardize it without watching a whole bunch of pots, is there a good guess on what to use as the standard deviation.

So, are holdem pots normally distributed, and what is a good guess for the standard deviation.

Thanks

[Bob T.]

I think that in a tight game pots aren't going to be normally distributed. They will be a one tailed distribution, with the most likely potsize, being the blinds, and one raise.

I think that in a loose game, the distribution will more closely resemble a normal distribution, but it will still be onetailed to some degree.

The average pot size, and variance will change with every player change, because both how tight the players are, and how aggressive they are will affect both numbers. I think that the only way to really answer your question, is to keep some statistics on pot size yourself while you are playing.

[DiamondDave]

You might want to try modeling the natural logarithm of the pot size as a normal random variable. Just a thought. - [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

[Bob T.]

That might work.....