Flopped bottom set on single-tone board

Ulysses · #1 04-02-2003, 10:26 PM

2 or 3 limpers. CO raises. FWIW, he raised the previous hand w/ AA and lost. I don't know this guy well, but in general he seems to be a pretty solid player. I'm in the BB w/ 88 and call. The limpers do as well. Something like 5-way action.

Flop A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet. 1 caller. CO raises. I 3-bet. Caller folds. CO 4-bets. I 5-bet. He calls. Anyone slow down earlier?

Turn A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] (A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img])

I bet. He calls.

River 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] (A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img])

Which of the following options is best?

Bet
Check (intending to check-raise)
Check (intending to check-call)

How about the flop/turn play? If he had raised the turn, 3-bet or call him down?

Ed Miller · #2 04-02-2003, 10:39 PM

Man... I think you definitely have to be worried about AK or KK here. I think a flush is unlikely (but obviously possible) given his preflop raise. When he 4-bets you on this flop, it's hard to put him on a hand like AQ. I suppose he could have that with the Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img].

I would not checkraise the river. I just don't think you are ahead of hands he would bet on the river often enough. You should bet if you think AQ or something like Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] are likely hands and if you think he won't raise you with KK. If you check-call, the river is clearly -EV for you because he won't often bet with hands you can beat. All-in-all, I would probably bet and suck it up and call a raise.

Ulysses · #3 04-02-2003, 10:53 PM

You should bet if you think AQ or something like Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] are likely hands and if you think he won't raise you with KK

Those are possible hands. I wouldn't go so far as likely. I don't really know this player, so mostly I just need to go with the action. Based on that you don't seem to think they are all that likely... I'm sure he'll raise w/ KK.

If you check-call, the river is clearly -EV for you because he won't often bet with hands you can beat. All-in-all, I would probably bet and suck it up and call a raise.

OK, but given the percentage of times he's going to have AA/AK/KK here given this action, do you think betting is also -EV? Maybe it's just a question of which one is less -EV. Oh yeah, I agree w/ you that check-raising is a bad idea here.

elysium · #4 04-02-2003, 11:07 PM

bet

SoBeDude · #5 04-02-2003, 11:11 PM

If he had AK, KK or AA, he has a monster. Why wouldn't he raise you on the turn?

If he's sitting on a monster boat or quads, he'd probably put you on the flush and raise you 'till he can't pick up his arms anymore.

Given that he just called, I'm having a hard time putting him on those hands. Maybe AQ or KQ, JJ or a small flush.

But given that, I still think you should check the river.

-Scott

Ed Miller · #6 04-02-2003, 11:11 PM

I think it's almost certainly a question of which one is less -EV. I dunno, it's a tough situation. Maybe check-calling is the lesser of two evils. Your real mistake in this hand was failing to catch the case 8. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Ed Miller · #7 04-02-2003, 11:14 PM

If he had AK, KK or AA, he has a monster. Why wouldn't he raise you on the turn?

Slowplay. His opponent has to put Ulysses on a flush as his most likely hand given the fact that he was in the blind and that he got in the last bet on the flop. If his opponent turned a monster, last thing he wants to do is help Ulysses make a good fold of his flush on 4th street while drawing dead. He would ideally want Ulysses to pay him off for two bets on the river.

SoBeDude · #8 04-02-2003, 11:15 PM

wow elysium. you're posts are really getting shorter!

but you forgot to add the "Do you see why?" question.

SoBeDude · #9 04-02-2003, 11:35 PM

I see your point.

But it has been my experience that people will call the raise more often on the turn than the river, especially when they've been the aggressor. I think the reason for this is even if they suddenly think they're behind, there is a card to come so they think they can improve to beat you.

So if they call your turn raise, then catch a good card on the river, they'll bet and/or raise you and thus you make more money. But if they call your turn raise and don't make it on the river, they'll check-fold.

If you only call the turn and they don't make it on the river, they check-fold and you miss a bet.

Slowplaying here seems to be a mistake to me. too much of a chance to miss a bet.

-Scott

Ulysses · #10 04-03-2003, 01:47 AM

If he had AK, KK or AA, he has a monster. Why wouldn't he raise you on the turn?

This guy knows I'm a decent player. He also probably puts me on a flopped flush.

Now, let's assume he has one of those monsters and I have a flush. If he raises, best case I'll call his raise and check-call the river - he makes 3 bets. However, after all that action on the flop, I may well fold a flush to a raise and he's left with one bet. If he just calls, he'll make at least one more bet from me on the river, and possibly two if I bet and call his raise. If he has a hand like that, I think calling the turn is better than raising.

Maybe AQ or KQ, JJ or a small flush.

AQ - maybe, especially w/ Qd. KQ - no way we go 5 bets on the flop. JJ - if you think he could go 5 bets on the flop w/ JJ, I don't see how you can put him on any hands. Small flush - he may have raised w/ something like 89d, but I think big flush is much more likely than small flush.