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  #1  
Old 08-19-2005, 06:48 AM
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Default 5/10 live - OESD on the flop

Please let me know your opinions on this one.. i've been thinking about it for a while now.

Villain is a reasonable player with plenty of experience in a smaller game and has recently started playing our 5/10 spread. He's not playing scared, but he is playing a little tighter than usual. I havnt shown down a losing hand all night, and he knows me as someone that changes gears lots.

7 handed 5/10 live NLHE
hero (~$975) (AsQs)
Villain (~$650)

UTG straddles for $20, folded to Hero who raises to 75, Villain re-raises to 130(?!?), all fold to Hero, Hero calls.

flop 9c Td Js (~$275)

Hero pushes all-in. ???

any comments welcome.. will post my thoughts later

Edit: forgot to list my hole cards!
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Old 08-19-2005, 07:03 AM
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Default Re: 5/10 live - OESD on the flop

So we're assuming you have QQ since you didn't specify?

Based on how you described villain, I'd say he has AK

Why do you push for $855 ($530) into a $275 pot on the flop?

You're raising $55 on the flop, wouldn't villain have to min raise $55 more to $130?
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Old 08-19-2005, 07:19 AM
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Default Re: 5/10 live - OESD on the flop

oops. you're right re: min-raise.. I've altered the typo. added my hand details.

My thinking at the time was his small PF raise was merely to isolate against me, so he could have 99-AA, and possibly AK or AQ. Of those 8 hands, I beat none with my AsQs, but i figured pushing here would fold any PP that hadn't hit a set, AK and AQ, and might even fold 99 or TT.

Specifically i put him on AA, KK or AK, and i estimated at the time that gave me roughly 1/3 pot equity. So i fold two thirds of my opponents hands, and win one third of the time if i get called. worse case scenario he has JJ (i'm 4-1 against), or KQ (I'm over 5-1 against), and he's not folding those.

I have no idea whether pushing was the right thing to do though.. the flop ruined all my plans on how to lead.
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Old 08-19-2005, 07:45 AM
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Default Re: 5/10 live - OESD on the flop

I'd say his most likely holdings are AK 1st and TT 2nd. JJ-AA I don't see him min raising based on your read of how he's playing. I think he looks to take down the pot preflop with those holdings or at least define your hand which a minraise won't accomplish.

Your pot overbet can be interpreted as TT or 99 scared of a Q or K coming off on the turn. No way he puts you on KQ there and I also don't consider KQ one of his likely holdings.

I like this play more now that I know you have AQ as you will fold out AK and have outs against TT. I'm still not sure of the overbet on the flop. Do you think you can accomplish the same thing with a smaller bet that doesn't commit you if he pushes? The only reason I ask that is if you make a smaller bet that doesn't commit you, he does not seem like the type of player who would come over the top if you give him enough room for his push to have any fold equity. Then you know you're up against a set and are not pot commited.
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  #5  
Old 08-19-2005, 09:02 AM
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Default Re: 5/10 live - OESD on the flop

I see your point regarding Villain's possible holdings.

Your question is valid, and the reason I ended up pushing was because i really didnt know whether the smaller bet would work, and was concerned he would flat call a small flop bet and i'd be left with the same problem on the turn, with a bigger pot, and my hand could well have much less potential. It is not at all unthinkable that he could come over the top of a smaller bet also. I did dwell up for about 30-45 seconds before making my decision

I guess my question is whether its a good move, given my uncertainty and lack of position, to get it all in on the flop where my hand has its most potential, and where an overbet can cause maximum confusion and fold out a lot of hands? Add into the mix villain's recent step up in limits, and I thought this a good option at the time.
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