<5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian

[yabastid]

So villian decided to loose his mind about 2-3 orbits ago pushing an calling allins with all sorts of stuff. His stack rollercoastered with his play and he got involved in most pots. So I'm 99% I'm getting called unless he misclicks. My thinking is that if I wait he'll call no matter what and I don't want someone else to wake up with a monster and go 3 way. My only thought was stack size of second shortie, but I'm thinking I can't wait around for him busting with these blinds. So . . .

***** Hand History for Game 2555796002 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14945708 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 18, 12:50:33 EDT 2005
Table Table 13879 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: yabastid ( $710 )
Seat 5: BadLuck139 ( $2680 )
Seat 7: dlhughley ( $1160 )
Seat 1: zebking ( $3450 )
Trny:14945708 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to yabastid [ Qc 9h ]
dlhughley folds.
zebking folds.
yabastid is all-In [635]

[tigerite]

If he's really calling with 90%+ hands, this is horribly -EV. Even at 60% it's -EV. You should fold this with your read.

Q9o is 55% fav against random hand. Good push.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's really calling with 90%+ hands, this is horribly -EV. Even at 60% it's -EV. You should fold this with your read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not being a smart a$$ here tigerite, but you lost me on this one. I'd push Q9o here from the SB even if my cards were face up. This is not even close.

[tigerite]

Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not ICM'd it... But we are the shortstack and the pot represents 35% of our stack. Even if I knew BB was calling in the dark, there's no way I'm not pushing this. We need to double up. It's not like we're in 3rd and there is a shortstack waiting to bust out.

[tigerite]

Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold. We are then about equal with him, and he has to go through SB next hand when we're UTG. He also has the worst position on the table on the bubble - sitting to the right of the big stack.

[FlyWf]

On the face of it this looks like a fold, but on the other hand with him playing sheriff the other shortstack isn't going to get involved without a premium hand and you are going to get blinded out.

I think this is a situation where you aren't going to see a +$EV situation the rest of this tourney, this one isn't too bad. Better to get involved in an even money tossup here thatthan try to double up with 400 chips in an orbit. It's crucial that your double-up puts you over the other shortstack.

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, Tiger,

I did and EV was +1.4%. Pretty close. So I am confused here. I don't know what to wait for if villian is seemingly going to play every hand. Against him I have no FE and that's regardless of position. SO, if I wait another 2 hands I have to hope that I get something better than Q9o and that he will be the only one to call. In three hands I'm back in the blinds and if there's a raise do I defend my BB with any random 2?

[benza13]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold. We are then about equal with him, and he has to go through SB next hand when we're UTG. He also has the worst position on the table on the bubble - sitting to the right of the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, but based on his read, the BB, who is SB next hand and acting after us again, will probably call then too, and I would rather push Q9 just into him now than a random hand next time through 2 people.