Running bluffs(2 hands)

barongreenback · #1 08-18-2005, 09:54 AM

My river play has is pretty poor at the moment and this is where my main interest is. It's where the money and overlays are greatest. Feel free to comment on other streets.

Hand 1
Villain is tight preflop. Postflop unknown.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter

MP1 ($102.85)
MP2 ($148.55)
MP3 ($93)
CO ($115.25)
Button ($86.95)
SB ($132.40)
BB ($65.45)
Hero ($99)
UTG+1 ($156.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls $1, 4 folds, CO raises to $4.5, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($10.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO calls $10.

Turn: ($30.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $29, CO calls $29.

AA likely but unknown sidecards. Do I bet the following rivers and how much?
a) Total blank.
b) Offsuit J. Gives me str8 but do I call raise and will worse hands call?

Hand 2
Different villain. ABC AFAIK. Has seen hand 1 from earlier in session but I've been TAGish generally.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($101.35)
MP1 ($152.05)
MP2 ($99.25)
MP3 ($98.50)
CO ($83.75)
Button ($132.80)
SB ($61.80)
Hero ($141.70)
UTG ($151.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($6.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $6.2, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $6.20.

Turn: ($18.90) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $13, CO thinks then calls $13.

Pot $45. He has $62 left.
The board is very busy and I don't know which river scare cards hit him and I'm going to have to represent something on most rivers as I'm very likely behind.

Regardless of the turn being right or wrong, do you bet the following rivers and, importantly, how much?
a) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Flush on board.
b) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Pairs board.
c) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Blank.

Thanks,
James

wickss · #2 08-18-2005, 10:35 AM

Hand 1:
You have represented a set/2pair on the flop and a boat on the turn. He likely had a 9 hoping to make a higher boat. He could be merely calling to the river with aces, a play that would happen less at these tables than at the $25 level. I wouldn't recommend betting the river. If your straight comes I would check and call a small bet or put out a small bet to block a large bet. Otherwise I would check and fold as your two bluffs have failed.

Hand 2:
[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to have to represent something on most rivers as I'm very likely behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have been representing a straight. You shouldn't blindly bet and try to represent every hand that appears on board. Good players will latch onto this and outbluff you.
Your opponent could be letting you bet his straight for him. He is likely on a draw though. You have 2 pair, a hand that could take down the pot. You want to avoid putting much money into the pot on the river. There are tons of scare cards. You are better off not trying to guess whether you have gotten outdrawn if you have to pay a large bet to showdown. Big hands are made for big money and you have a weak hand. He probably has a draw to broadway with a flush draw. I would be scared of A, but not B or C.

Tilt · #3 08-18-2005, 11:06 AM

Hand 1 - I would bet half the pot on a blank. That way the bluff looks like a value bet and only has to be successful 1 out of 3 time to be +EV. I would check call an offsuit J.

Hand 2 - You are screwed. Your hand might be best right now, but its going to be expensive to find out if it will be at the river. This is exactly the kind of hand that illustrates why you want position before calling a preflop raise with a hand like this.

If I were in your shoes I'd bet 1/2 the pot on a flushless board. If a flush card hits I might check/muck, even though thats so weak. Against a weak player I'd throw out a blocking bet at the river and fold to a raise, but against a player with good aggressive instincts I'd be reluctant to do so.

barongreenback · #4 08-20-2005, 05:02 AM

Thanks for the replies. I've got to be careful putting someone on 2 cards but forgetting about sidecards.

Hand 1:
I hit my str8 and suddenly realised all wasn't simple. River was checked through and he had bare AA. I didn't feel good so glad you both agree. I would've bluffed if I hadn't hit but I don't think I represented a hand well. In his shoes is anyone making this call?

Hand 2:
I felt he had a set and was scared of str8. Problem is he could have something with his set. A 7 came and I bet anyway smallish on some vague str8/2pair folding and bluff blocking notion (bad), he raised and I folded. He showed quads, didn't catch his sidecards. I'm pretty sure he would have folded a blank and paid of if I'd filled (go for checkraise?).

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day and I don't know if this is the case when I read someone right.

James