Simple Pot Odds Question.

I'm working on my pot odds calculations and just want to see if my thought process is correct. Let's forget that I probably shouldn't have even played this hand (there have been a lot of limpers and un-raised pots PF...that's why I even played here.)

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No-limit Texas Hold'em $30+$3 (real money),

Seat 1: rickt570 ($3,100 in chips)
Seat 2: HERO [Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($1,190 in chips)
Seat 3: JMcgoo ($1,505 in chips)
Seat 4: madmardigan ($535 in chips)
Seat D: Bilbo36 ($1,745 in chips)
SeatSB: Pinocchio99 ($310 in chips)
SeatBB: ajdownsy ($2,250 in chips)
SeaUTG: 53061 ($1,190 in chips)
Seat 9: Dirty Murph ($1,305 in chips)
Seat 10: Lofvendahl ($1,870 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
Pinocchio99 posts blind ($15), ajdownsy posts blind ($30).

PRE-FLOP
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $30, 2 folds, <font color="blue">HERO calls $30, </font> 3 folds, SB calls $15, BB checks.

<font color="green"> pot t120 </font>
FLOP [J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
SB bets $280 and is all-in, 2 folds, <font color="blue"> Hero... </font>
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I know that since I'm the last to act and that I'm calling an All-in that the implied odds will be the same as the expressed odds. I need to call t280 to win t400 which is 1.4 to 1. I am also assuming that I have 9 outs to win with a flush (and a remote backdoor str8). I also think that the chances of him bluffing or semi-bluffing with a smaller flush negates the chances he is drawing to the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flush, so I'm going with 9 outs for my calculations. And I am also figuring he does not have AJ since I think he would have raised pre-flop in his situation. Are my odds against me (47/9/2) 2.6 to 1? And I have an easy fold, correct?

gl,
mike.

[xJMPx]

The way I would work this out is in terms of percentages.

Pot Odds of 1.4-1 is about 42% (1/(1.4+1)). Therefore, you need to be winning here more than 42% of the time.

In terms of outs, if you have 9 outs with the turn and river to come, you'll improve approx. 36% (4*9) of the time. So, you're not getting the odds.

However, you also have to consider that a certain percentage of time your opponent does not have you beat here. He could just as easily be on a smaller flush draw and you have to add this to your chances of winning. This contributes to your outs. Then again, a certain percentage of time you are also drawing dead to his full house, or he can re-draw to a full house to beat your flush.

You have to take all this into consideration.

If you assume he has an ace you have 8 outs not 9...and if you both miss the turn then you have 7 outs left.

[ QUOTE ]
If you assume he has an ace you have 8 outs not 9...and if you both miss the turn then you have 7 outs left.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following this...how does him holding an Ac or As hinder my flush outs? And how do my outs get worse on the river?

gl,
Mike.

[Paulson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you assume he has an ace you have 8 outs not 9...and if you both miss the turn then you have 7 outs left.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following this...how does him holding an Ac or As hinder my flush outs? And how do my outs get worse on the river?

gl,
Mike.

[/ QUOTE ]

For example, if he has an A6s, the 6d would not be an out for you. If a blank shows up on the turn, such as the 10c, then a 10d would not be an out for you on the river.

actually...I am oversimplifying because there is a chance that his x card is the same as one of your hole cards.

Anyway, the reduction in outs is because your made flush might also fill his boat.

I see. Thanks for the insight. I love this place.

gl,
Mike.