Implied ICM.

valenzuela · #1 08-15-2005, 04:05 PM

This hand never left my head, and then I thought of an idea....implied ICM! thats it implied ICM!!!!
Implied ICM consist of the following:
Youre in the blinds and you are very likely to go all-in next hand so.......
You take ure stack and u put it against the BB on a ficticious showdown( in which U win 50% of the time). Is that ficticious showdown reliable? Well its better than the original ICM anyway. Ive always seen in many discutions somebody argueing that ICM doesnt know about your small FE, well do a ficticious showdown against the BB( or the SB if youre the BB).
By now ,probably, only 10% of 2+2ers have an idea about what Im talking about..but if you read on, you might figure out what Im trying to talking about.
OPEN THE LINK AND KEEP IT OPEN!!!!!!!
So if I fold I have $18 according to ICM, well Implied ICM doesnt think so.
Implied ICM thinks I have $16,7. ( Imagine next hand u go all-in against the BB, if u win u will have $33,4) What if BB folds?? What if this? what if that? The only point of Implied ICM is to take into account a highly possible showdown for all your chips against somebody , a highly possible showdown that regular ICM doesnt take into account.
So now in my 65 hand you only need to win 38% of the time, still incorrect to call maybe.
Implied ICM should only be used in the blinds...for now.
Anyway maybe Implied ICM has been tried or proposed before, anyway thats all for now.

maddog2030 · #2 08-15-2005, 04:36 PM

My brain sorta hurt trying to follow your post. But I think you might want to check out the latest beta of eastbay's program.

Nicholasp27 · #3 08-15-2005, 04:47 PM

i'll push even if icm tells me it's a negative play if i know the next few hands will be more -ev with all but premium hands

so i like the idea of implied icm...haven't yet studied it or built a model around it yet tho...

valenzuela · #4 08-16-2005, 10:19 PM

bump...and btw what features does Eastbay new beta program have...?

maddog2030 · #5 08-17-2005, 02:23 AM

Check his forum.

45suited · #6 08-17-2005, 02:45 AM

Val, in the specific hand that you posted, I don't hate your call at all.

Especially if the button has been very active, it makes the decision easier. (Obviously I really want to see two overs and not a PP here.) If he was a tight player, it becomes a pretty easy fold.

In that hand, you would have been down to t513 after posting the SB. Given the # of shortstacks at the table, I don't think it's hard to imagine the next hand being pushed ahead of you again, possibly from an earlier position.

One thing that is often not taken into consideration is that this might be the only chance you have to get into a heads up spot. This is a very important point. As much as I hate it, I would definitely consider calling in the spot you were in. Taking a stand here is probably your best chance to get ITM.

Don't fall in love with this concept though. There were several factors that came together in this hand that made calling okay IMO. Too often, I see people panicking if they are at 3-5 BB when it's not really necessary.

As to your "Implied ICM" post, I didn't really understand exactly what you were getting at, but I think that the call in the linked hand is okay.