$109 - Flop OESD on bubble as 2nd stack....

[octaveshift]

Villain saw about 10% of flops. What's your line here?


#Game No : 2527833753
***** Hand History for Game 2527833753 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:14800160 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Saturday, August 13, 12:02:17 EDT 2005
Table Table 35013 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: italmtl ( $985 )
Seat 4: Wezzee ( $1015 )
Seat 9: xyrophobic ( $1600 )
Seat 2: sammypinkbil ( $6400 )
Trny:14800160 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to xyrophobic [ 6d 9c ]
italmtl folds.
sammypinkbil folds.
Wezzee calls [50].
xyrophobic checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 8h, 3h ]
Wezzee bets [200].
xyrophobic ????

[octaveshift]

So a smattering of votes, and no replies.

I hate polls. I shouldn't have included it.

Anyway- my thought with the hand is that this would be a great spot for a semi bluff. If villain had a monster, he wouldn't have potted the flop, and he shouldn't be calling a push without a premium hand. TPTK or above.

Is my thought process flawed?

[octaveshift]

bump

[Newt_Buggs]

This looks like the perfect time for a semi-bluff, especially since you don't bust if you get called and miss. Even if he calls with an 8 you have an extra 3 outs with the 9. If you're still not sure you could do an ICM and see how often he needs to fold for it to be profitable.

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like the perfect time for a semi-bluff, especially since you don't bust if you get called and miss. Even if he calls with an 8 you have an extra 3 outs with the 9. If you're still not sure you could do an ICM and see how often he needs to fold for it to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

so by semi-bluff, are you saying push?

[Newt_Buggs]

yes

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
yes

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, about what I figured. I pushed.

Don't these people know they shouldn't call with bottom pair, especially if I am not going to hit my straight?


[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
So a smattering of votes, and no replies.

I hate polls. I shouldn't have included it.

Anyway- my thought with the hand is that this would be a great spot for a semi bluff. If villain had a monster, he wouldn't have potted the flop, and he shouldn't be calling a push without a premium hand. TPTK or above.

Is my thought process flawed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thought process is on the right track, but flawed. The part about them only calling with a premium hand is definitely incorrect. You will get called by someone who had hit almost any piece of this board and occasionally by a high. The good news is that you are looking pretty good against the villain's range when you are called. Because of his limp pf, then flop bet, we can be pretty sure he doesn't have a great hand. They get much cuter with things like 2 pair. I think if you're called it's usually by top or second pair, but that's okay because you're close to a coinflip against these with your overcard. There are definitely times when he folds (although I don't think it's a tremendous percentage of the time), but because of this fold equity and the dead money in the pot, I think it's a push.

[durron597]

Look at his stack; he is not folding the flop. You are not a favorite to win. So I would fold, but you could chase and try to delayed bluff the turn (probably won't work) but you have implied odds (probably will work). I don't think that chasing is +$EV here though.

[lastchance]

Player dependent. You need to make this guy laydown to make this move. I don't know if I can do that.