Hardest card in the deck on the river this time...

[durron597]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

Button (t760)
Hero (t4200)
BB (t2730)
UTG (t1865)
MP (t3945)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t600) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks.

Turn: (t600) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, BB calls t400, MP folds.

River: (t1400) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ... ?

[ChuckyB]

bets 2/3rds to the full pot, dancing with his top-two pair.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
bets 2/3rds to the full pot, dancing with his top-two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I look very weak right now, so he might bet if checked to, and if he raises me he has the flush most of the time but I still have to call because of stack sizes and pot size.

[inyaface]

check call

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
if he raises me he has the flush most of the time but I still have to call because of stack sizes and pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're committed, i like continuing w/ the weak t400 from the turn. with the rags on the flop+turn, he could be calling you down here with middle pair just as often as flush chasing. if he DOESN'T have the flush, he's likely to just accept the check on the river. if he has intentions of bluffing a miss - he'd be just as inclinded to do so with your t400 bet as he would a check (maybe even more so, with a flush card that might scare HIM).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

if you're committed, i like continuing w/ the weak t400 from the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, the t400 is about the biggest bet that doesn't commit me to call a push.

The other thing to consider is that he will never almost never bluff raise me. But he might bluff bet when checked to. On the other hand he may have viewed my bet as a semibluff and/or has a hand worthy of showdown that he can check behind. Really the only hands that he might check behind for a free showdown are like 99-JJ that he was slowplaying? I don't know if that's worth the times my check induces a bluff...

[wildzer0]

It woudl be helpful if you had a read on bb, is he the type to call down with any piece of the flop? A lot of players will call off all their chips here with 85o, etc. If he's this type of player make a value bet on the river, you're probably still ahead. In general I wouldn't worry too much about the flush here. Your opponents call on the turn could mean overcards, a flush draw, a small pair, Ax, etc. I'm not sure what buy in this is, but at a 33 or under, this would be my line.

[bennies]

R U committed? As usual this is the question that you would like to answer before doing anything on the river.

If not, then check-call a reasonable bet.

If yes, and I would be here, his remaining stack of 2100 is too shallow to scare me off a 1400 pot. I'd simply pretend he has something else than a flush/straight and make a nice valuebet.

[Unarmed]

He's the BB, there's really no reason to fear the flush as his hand range is any two. Just check and let him bluff into you.

[bennies]

I know you know this (with 15xx posts, geez....) but his range is not any two after he calls the turn bet. I'd say he has the flush about 25% of the time, what do you think?

Also, why do you think he will bluff at the pot?