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#1
08-12-2005, 04:12 PM
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Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
Party Poker PL $200 Full-table I've played just over 100 hands with the two relevant players.
First four players limp, a fold, the two relevant players limp in CO-1 and the CO, button and SB fold, and I check in the BB with 55. 7 players to the flop for $14.25. Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] The first 4 limpers check and then things get interesting. CO-1 (17%/3%) bets the pot of $14.25 and is then raised to $57 by the CO (8%/1%). I've played a little over 100 hands with both CO-1 and the CO and both are pretty tight (preflop at least) as the stats I included indicate. Also, neither as really gotten out of line when they are playing a hand. What do I do now? Easy reraise or do I need to slowdown here? 
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#3
08-12-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
Esy reraise, infact, just push it in. What kind of tight players would limp in late position with JJ or QQ after alot of limpers. ALmost none, They would have riased preflop. As it is, one probably has QJ while another has a flush draw. This is easy push and if they had QQ JJ they are dumb as hell and youll get their money in the long run. I insta push.
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#5
08-12-2005, 04:57 PM
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Re: Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
Good enough.
Let's go. (You have 45% equity in a three-way pot, even in Xorbie's worst-case scenario.)
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#6
08-12-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
[ QUOTE ]
(You have 45% equity in a three-way pot, even in Xorbie's worst-case scenario.) [/ QUOTE ] The problem is Xorbie's scenario isn't the "worst-case" even if you discount my opponents holding JJ or QQ which is probably a decent assumption, but not one I think you can be completely confident of.
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#7
08-12-2005, 05:10 PM
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Re: Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] (You have 45% equity in a three-way pot, even in Xorbie's worst-case scenario.) [/ QUOTE ] The problem is Xorbie's scenario isn't the "worst-case" even if you discount my opponents holding JJ or QQ which is probably a decent assumption, but not one I think you can be completely confident of. [/ QUOTE ] Definitely. A player with a PFR% of 1 is usually NOT going to raise Jacks pre-flop, especially with a bunch of limpers. He's going to play it for set value.
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#8
08-12-2005, 05:11 PM
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Re: Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
QJ.. QJ is DEFINITELY out there. The first bet could be the KT but I'm betting my left nut that the re-raiser to 57$ has QJ. I'm shhhhoving. Tears
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#9
08-12-2005, 05:12 PM
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Re: Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action
[ QUOTE ]
Good enough. Let's go. [/ QUOTE ] It's 43% at best. Less against 9T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Far less against a set. CO has at least 12 outs here, if not JJ. I think this is close.
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#10
08-12-2005, 05:26 PM
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Added info: Chip stacks
I had ~$250 which was enough to cover both players. CO-1 started the hand with just under $200 and CO started the hand with $130. I thought this might be important to know just because after the CO's raise to $57 on the flop he only had 70-something left and was pretty much guaranteed to call any raise as far as I can tell.
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