Passing up some +EV plays is correct

Take the following situation...

$20+2 Party SNG

Blinds 150/300

BB has 4000 chips
UTG has 300 chips (Will be all in next hand)
SB has 2000 chips
HERO is SB and has 1700 chips

Preflop you are dealt A10os. UTG folds. SB shows his cards face up (KsQs) and shoves all in. Easy fold?

The call is +EV for that specific hand (slight favorite) and therefore would be an autocall in a cash game. But in a tournament things change.

You will get at LEAST 3rd place 75% of the time assuming you do nothing and SB is forced into 2 coinflip situations.

I am no math expert by any means, but I will take a stab at it here. By calling all of you chips in with a slight favorite (55/45).

There are two outcomes to the allin:

1) You win and double up, criple the other player, and should be able to coast into at least 2nd most of the time.
2) You lose out of the tournament and get nothing.

Situation 1:
If you do double up (55% of the time) you will have about even chips with the other player at heads up, thus you will get first place 27.5% of the time and second 27.5% of the time.

Situation 2:
You get 4th 45% of the time.

100%
27.5% +4buyins +1.1
27.5% +2buyins +0.55
45% -1buyin -0.45

+1.2

Therefore the EV of calling is about 1.2 buyins.

And folding? Whats is the EV of that?

If you fold, there are two outcomes:

1) You fold and 75% of the time you get at least 3rd.
2) You fold and 25% of the time its a coinflip for 4th or 3rd.

75% You make it ITM and chips are ~ 2000 (you) 2000 4000.
I will assume the following:
When you get ITM you will get in third 50% of the time, second 25% of the time and first 25% of the time with these stacks.

First 18.75% +4 buyins +0.75
Second 18.75% +2 buyins +0.375
Third 50% +1 buyin +0.5
Fourth 12.5% -1 buyin -.25

+1.375 buyins

Soooo..

EV of calling - EV of folding
1.2 - 1.375
-0.175 buyin EV by calling vs folding.

Calling is incorrect.

Of course, this is VERY close, and perhaps I am assuming too much. Obviously this is a very simple example, but you get the idea, it can apply to alot of situations you face late game in a SNG.


The whole point of this post is to show those of you who think that +EV moves are always correct (hand specific) that it may sometimes be incorrect to CALL A push late in a tournament with only a slight edge. Many good players already know this, but it was something I had to struggle with alot when I first started and this post might somehow help someone.

Of course if you were the one RAISING and you got CALLED by someone else holding KQs, then so be it. Calling with a slight edge is different entirely.

Cheers

[capone0]

How do you shove in your cards face up on Party?

[eastbay]

chip EV? You must be new around here. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Generally EV talk in the SnG forum means $EV.

eastbay

[durron597]

Wow, this idea has never come up on these boards before, something to think about!

[PrayingMantis]

This is certainly a new and revolutionary concept, and I think it will forever change the way we are thinking about SNGs.

It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe. I had to kind of laugh at this. This guy really did get torn a new one for what I'm sure he thought was an interesting and fresh concept.

On the other hand, even a cursory search could probably have netted him a few different threads that have discussed this before (although I'll be the first to admit that I am completely inept when it comes to using the search feature on this forum).

On the other hand, this thread is a lot better than another "Was I right to lay down KK here?" thread.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that? I never really understand this attitude. If you post, get ready to read what people think about what you're saying. Nothing wrong with that... If you're afraid to post, because you're worried about what people might say, well, I guess that's not the best place for you.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of my best learning experiences early on came from making brash and stupid posts and getting bitchslapped around by the regulars. I think you learn more when you're not afraid to look silly.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that? I never really understand this attitude. If you post, get ready to read what people think about what you're saying. Nothing wrong with that... If you're afraid to post, because you're worried about what people might say, well, I guess that's not the best place for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any comments regarding how a hand was played or our play in general is one thing that we should all be open to or else we are just wasting our time on this forum, but getting ripped by more experienced players because they have been there and done that seems less than appropriate.

B.