The Results Are In!!!! Time of Day---> ROI/ITM Correlation Test...

Messy_Jesse · #1 08-11-2005, 04:00 AM

Ok. I compiled the list of stats from this thread. Basically, I had people submit their results based on the time of day, and compiled and weighted the results to find how people's ROI and ITM vary according to the time of the day. After a sh!tload of painstaking data entry, I came up with some general stats. They encompass approximately 10,500 tournaments, so should be pretty accurate. Here are the results:

ITM ROI #Tourneys

Morning: 36.8% 11.9% 654
Forenoon: 37.2% 7.9% 830
Afternoon: 37.3% 8.8% 2088
Dinner: 38.6% 16.4% 2720
Evening: 38.9% 18.1% 2994
Night: 37.9% 14.2% 2077

A quick look at those stats, and you can see the bell-curve nature of it. The dinner and evening stats (as I expected) were significantly better than those of other times during the day.

Comments?

P.S. I realize that there are a few spots where the accuracy of these results could be called into question- however, I believe that these are trivial in nature and that for the most part, these results are statistically significant.

-Jess

Shilly · #2 08-11-2005, 04:02 AM

Thanks for compiling all of that data. I don't think the results are all that interesting, however--it basically just confirms what most of us seemed to think.

Myst · #3 08-11-2005, 04:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for compiling all of that data. I don't think the results are all that interesting, however--it basically just confirms what most of us seemed to think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could be a a little bit more grateful for someone who takes the time to actually confirm, through evidence, what seems to be common sense.

Thanks Jess.

raptor517 · #4 08-11-2005, 04:09 AM

nice post. i wanted to do that but im too lazy. anyways.. i play maybe .5% of my games in the forenoon period. im just NEVER awake at that point. 8-12.. thats just out of my range for awakeness. nice luckbox btw [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] holla

Shilly · #5 08-11-2005, 04:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for compiling all of that data. I don't think the results are all that interesting, however--it basically just confirms what most of us seemed to think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could be a a little bit more grateful for someone who takes the time to actually confirm, through evidence, what seems to be common sense.

Thanks Jess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did thank him.

TT_fold · #6 08-11-2005, 04:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. I compiled the list of stats from this thread. Basically, I had people submit their results based on the time of day, and compiled and weighted the results to find how people's ROI and ITM vary according to the time of the day. After a sh!tload of painstaking data entry, I came up with some general stats. They encompass approximately 10,500 tournaments, so should be pretty accurate. Here are the results:

ITM ROI #Tourneys

Morning: 36.8% 11.9% 654
Forenoon: 37.2% 7.9% 830
Afternoon: 37.3% 8.8% 2088
Dinner: 38.6% 16.4% 2720
Evening: 38.9% 18.1% 2994
Night: 37.9% 14.2% 2077

A quick look at those stats, and you can see the bell-curve nature of it. The dinner and evening stats (as I expected) were significantly better than those of other times during the day.

Comments?

P.S. I realize that there are a few spots where the accuracy of these results could be called into question- however, I believe that these are trivial in nature and that for the most part, these results are statistically significant.

-Jess

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, these numbers are far from trivial. The jump in ROI from afternoon to dinner is astounding! This makes me want to reconsider playing a bunch of SNGs during the day tomorrow. Why do all the cool social events have to occur during Party's fishiest hours? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Sabrazack · #7 08-11-2005, 04:27 AM

I am assuming all these times are after the partypoker time. But my question is, between what hours do you count the different "times"? Like, when is dinner?

raptor517 · #8 08-11-2005, 04:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am assuming all these times are after the partypoker time. But my question is, between what hours do you count the different "times"? Like, when is dinner?

[/ QUOTE ]

if the memory serves right.. im too lazy to look it up.. dinner is 4-8, evening 8-12, night 12-4, morning or whatever 4-8, forenoon 8-12, and whatever else 12-4. im tired, cant think. holla

Newt_Buggs · #9 08-11-2005, 04:42 AM

Awesome post, thanks Jesse

The difference may not be nearly as dramatic as it seems though. 10,000 is a lot of tournaments, but spread across the time intervals it isn't too many. I'm sure that a confidence interval on the 654 for morning will say that it the numbers don't show you too much for that time period.

ilya · #10 08-11-2005, 04:47 AM

Thanks a lot Messy [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

One thing that's interesting about these results is that while the ROI differences are dramatic, the ITM differences are quite small. What's going on? Are daytime opponents better HU? Or are they better at accumulating chips early on while 2+2ers are at their weak-tightest?