AQs on bubble

[bones]

#Game No : 2494786074
***** Hand History for Game 2494786074 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:14632174 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, August 07, 17:22:45 EDT 2005
Table Table 11854 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: kjgoal77 ( $170 )
Seat 4: Panther_07 ( $1880 )
Seat 7: donrue ( $4915 )
Seat 8: DonkeysAlwaysDraw ( $1035 )
Trny:14632174 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DonkeysAlwaysDraw [ Ah Qh ]

SNGPT wouldn't run it with button having less than 1 bb, so I gave him 300 and took it from big stack. After doing that, this became a slightly positive push with every range, but it feels so awful.

[11t]

I think AQ is too strong to fold here. I'd push.

[Shillx]

Yeah pushing here pretty bad IMO. This could be (and probably is) as much as a -4% push. All the BB has to do is call in the dark and you are [censored]. He would be getting about 2:1 to call with his big stack, so you have to assume that you will get played with no matter what he has. Even if he has something like 73o, it is only about a 1% mistake for him to call if you are pushing TT+/AQ+.

I would want JJ to push here unless I felt like the short stack was stupid enough to call off all of his money. In that case I would obviously push since a) he would have to win the main pot and b) you would have to lose against the BB to not finish in the money.

Brad

[ilya]

If you don't push this, you're down to 735 if the big stack has any sense. The hand after that, you're either down to 585 or have to beat shortie with a random hand. Gotta push.

[Newt_Buggs]

ICM doesn't account for the BB raping you next hand

Even without this, its very possible that its a +EV push in itself with reasonable calling ranges.

[psyduck]

I think this is a pretty easy fold in a 10+1 with the big stack willing to call with so so so many hands.