Messed up the flop, but did I screw up the turn as well?

[DOTTT]

5-10 Full. utg+2 limps in, utg+3 makes it $40 to go, player in lp calls, I call on the button with QJd, limper calls.

Flop is:
49Tr

OR ($2200) bets $140, player in lp calls, I make it $500 ($2400 behind), limper folds, OR thinks a bit and calls looks like he was ready to push all in, lp caller folds.

Turn is Qh.
He checks, I push all in.

OR is pretty tight player I really put him on AA,KK here. I'm not really sure how willing he his to lay down a big pair here but I'd estimate it's close to a quater of the time.

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
OR looks like he was ready to push all in


[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly why your flop raise was terrible IMO....being in your situation with being last to act on a flop where there's been a bet and a call in front of you and holding a great draw to the nuts on a rainbow flop, a reraise would make me sick when I could've just closed the action and seen a turn with lots of money still to bet....even if you flat call the flop, you can still semi-bluff the turn because actually you'd be putting in a higher percentage of your stack relative to the pot - which would put OR to a tougher decision....as opposed to the way you played it, where the pot on the turn is so big already, he could be more inclined to just say "f it" and cry call....but as played, if you estimate he'll call 25% of the time, you can do the math to see if a bet was indeed correct......

[AZK]

For the most part, against all but the most timid players, I've stopped raising straight draws against unknowns...It's easier to just call and hit, or bluff the flush when it hits.

I could see raising a straight draw because it's a rainbow board, but I'd be more likely to raise 76 on a T54 board than QJ on a T94 board...I don't know why, does this make any sense?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be more likely to raise 76 on a T54 board than QJ on a T94 board...I don't know why, does this make any sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I would be more inclined to raise with the QJ. This way, if he's continuation betting with big cards, you clean up your overcard outs.

With the 67, you are looking for 8 and only 8 outs. With the QJ (overcards) you're getting at least 8, and maybe as many as 12.

However, to raise with either one of these, I would rather my opponents be un-tricky, passive, and preferably nitish.

Also, I would rather make this raise heads up, instead of multiway, although I'm not sure that 3 way is THAT much different.

[Big_Jim]

As for your turn push... here's the math:

Pot: $1160
Bet: $1660

pokenum -h jd qd - kh kc -- 4c 9h ts
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 4c 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Jd 236 23.84 754 76.16 0 0.00 0.238
Kc Kh 754 76.16 236 23.84 0 0.00 0.762

Let's just call it 3:1, cuz I'm lazy.

SO....

Folds: 25 * $1160 = $29000
Calls: 75 * (($1660 + $1160) - ($1660 * 3)) = -$162000

($29000 - $162000) /$ 100 = -$1330

In order for a push to be correct in this spot, he needs to fold a little over 65% of the time.

Folds: 65 * $1160 = 75400
Calls: 35 * (($1660 + 1160) - ($1660 * 3)) = -75600

($75400 - $75600) / 100 = -$2

Take your free card, and fold unimproved.

In general, it's a bad idea to try to push people off of AA and KK, people always get married to them. I've been very surprized by many of the calls I've seen people make with just an overpar.