This is a bad push right?

golfcchs · #1 08-01-2005, 07:46 PM

30+3
Big blind is to 300

UTG=2200
Hero=2800
SB=4200
BB=5400

Hero dealt 4-4

UTG folds
Hero goes all in

Table is pretty standard with AJ+ and pp being pushed by the big stacks.

At the time I thought it was good enough to push, but looking back I think its a bad play. Do you agree its a bad push and if so should I limp with 4-4 or fold?

blackaces13 · #2 08-01-2005, 08:03 PM

I think the blinds are right on the cusp of being too small for this play. If they were 300/600 this play becomes good IMO because when you win you gain 900 and that's almost 1/3 of your stack and because you're under a lot more pressure to play with blinds of that size.

As it is you're making a play that when called will leave you as either a huge underdog or a slim favorite, so you don't want to get called. But when the play works and they fold, which will usually happen, you only pick up 450. Also, you're betting into the big stacks who can call you, lose, and still be ok which may make them just a bit looser.

Seems like you're risking a bit too much to gain a bit too little on the bubble.

golfcchs · #3 08-01-2005, 08:12 PM

So even though it is +EV in terms of chips it is to much of a risk of busting out with nothing to justify making this play

blackaces13 · #4 08-01-2005, 08:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So even though it is +EV in terms of chips it is to much of a risk of busting out with nothing to justify making this play

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said it was +EV, though I suspect it might be. You can plug some numbers into an ICM calculator and see what you come up with. But as for bubble time in an SNG I'm not so sure that a small overlay in expectation necessarily justifies putting your tournament life on the line.

There is twice as much money at stake when going from 4th to 3rd as there is when going from 3rd to 2nd.

golfcchs · #5 08-01-2005, 08:35 PM

Okay so the push was bad. Now 2 questions first to a fold my 4's and second how much bigger of a pair do I need to push?

lastchance · #6 08-01-2005, 08:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay so the push was bad. Now 2 questions first to a fold my 4's and second how much bigger of a pair do I need to push?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you're attacking the two bigger stacks, so you need to fold some hands. I doubt I fold 66 though, and I don't think this push is that bad.

blackaces13 · #7 08-01-2005, 09:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay so the push was bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying the push is BAD. Like I said its right on the cusp IMO but for me its one of those borderline decisions that's just a little bit on the wrong side of the border.

I also don't think that going all in is mandatory just yet. Your "M" is above 5 and more importantly on the bubble I think if you can take a real shot at the pot w/o risking all your chips its preferable.

You'll have position on whomever calls you so you can make a smallish raise and plan on betting any flop if checked to.

psyduck · #8 08-02-2005, 02:16 AM

If this push is wrong, then I'm making a lot of mistakes...

Anyone justify why this is wrong?

#9 08-02-2005, 03:42 AM

If the blinds are reasonable players I think it is a clear push. However, if there's much chance of a spite call, it becomes a fold.

MagnoliasFM · #10 08-02-2005, 03:45 AM

boderline between folding and calling, don't even think about limping though.