View on variance.

johnnybeef · #1 08-01-2005, 03:15 PM

After talking to various members of this forum who I have either befriended or associated my self with, and then reading this thread and this thread, it has become very apparent to me that there are a ton of people who don't truly understand variance around here. I'm not sure what the general consensus on me as a poster here is, but I believe most people respect my opinion and advice. Over the last two months I have been barely break even playing sngs. Irie wrote a brilliant post about downswings that can be found here . I kind of want to add a few figures to show some newbies what is possible here. In the last four months, I have been living off of poker winnings exclusively. April and May I was crushing the 22s and 33s, and spent money like a drunken sailor ($200 jeans.) At the beginning of June I went to Vegas with everyone for the wsop, went broke, and have struggled since. Since the beginning of June, I have had downswings of 20, 35 and 45 buyins respectively. During my latest swing, I have gotten my chips in itm 7 times in a row with top pair only to be called by a draw that hit. My 1st place % over the last 400 sngs is 7.3%. My Roi over that same stretch is -5. IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE FOR A GREAT PLAYER TO RUN THIS BAD AT ANY TIME.

My point in writing this is to inform people of how bad it can get, as I have seen many people around here hit their first bad stretch and freak out. Stay calm. If you play the right way, it will turn around eventually, as, like life, poker is full of peaks and valleys.

Good luck everyone,
Johnny

kevstreet · #2 08-01-2005, 03:28 PM

Thank you for the well thought out post. Hope to read about your future success soon.

Sabrazack · #3 08-01-2005, 03:34 PM

This gives me alot of hope, i shall save it and read it whenever im feeling sad about running bad. Knowing someone is running worse might be abit comforting.

psyduck · #4 08-07-2005, 01:08 AM

When you say you went broke in Vegas, do you mean you cashed out your online bankroll and used it there as well? What limits were you playing to lose that much? Or were you just LAGging it up?

ReDeYES88 · #5 08-07-2005, 01:25 AM

sinusoidal

raptor517 · #6 08-07-2005, 01:38 AM

it aint bad yet if yer only -5 over 400 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. it can get worse. holla

durron597 · #7 08-07-2005, 01:46 AM

I hate when you play a set and you make a mistake or two and you're like "its ok I'm playing +$EV poker and the long run will come soon." Then you play nigh-perfect poker in the next set and still lose money to bad beats. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

johnnybeef · #8 08-07-2005, 07:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When you say you went broke in Vegas, do you mean you cashed out your online bankroll and used it there as well? What limits were you playing to lose that much? Or were you just LAGging it up?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i took my online roll out there (~3k). 600-700 went to strippers (thanks irie), i played in two multis that were ~$200 a piece. and then i lost the rest in every ring game i played (10-20 omaha hilo at the wynn, 4/8 holdem at the wynn, 1/2nl at the wynn and palms, 4/8 omaha hilo at the bellagio, 8/16 holdem at the wynn)

johnny005 · #9 08-07-2005, 07:49 AM

I'm glad you posted this johnny, ITs about 7:44 here And I'm still up cause I cant sleep due to my recent down swing I just came to my computer to try and figure things out.. I know variance can be a painfull, But how does one distiguish running bad and playing? And when does running bad start affect your playing? I know the answer to this question is different from person to person.
I find myself second guessing every decsion I make when I'm pn a bad streak. It would be nice if I had a poker genie sitting behind me telling me when I'm making a stupid play...
Like the other night I tried an action semi-bluff with pocket kings [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] what was I thinking??

Freudian · #10 08-07-2005, 08:01 AM

While it is certainly true that winning players can go on losing or breakeven streaks that are longer than you intuitively would think is possible I think it is important to be cautious when analyzing a bad run.

When running bad for a long time just shrugging it off with "it's just variance" is a comforting thought but may not be the entire truth. I know I have leaks in my game by default. I do know I play extra tourneys when running bad, which is a form of tilt. So for me (and I would guess most others here) it would be more truthful to say "It is just variance, tilt and bad play".

My point is that we shouldn't be content with just reckoning it is variance. We should try to figure out how much the other factors influence. It is a cliche but the best time to fix problems with your game is when running bad because when running good the problems are hidden behind good luck and it may be very hard to spot them.