44 against a good player

swolfe · #1 07-31-2005, 10:18 PM

Villain is tight, solid...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter

UTG ($432.25)
UTG+1 ($396)
MP1 ($142)
MP2 ($873.95)
MP3 ($524.60)
CO ($729.15)
Button ($161.80)
SB ($274.10)
Hero ($648)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises to $15, 7 folds, Hero calls $11.

Flop: ($32) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $25, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($82) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $60

elus2 · #2 07-31-2005, 10:37 PM

if he's the type to fire a second barrel, i like a turn check-raise instead. it's a lot more consistent with having a set plus you make more money if he's the type to fire again with AK. how often do you think he can fold QQ/JJ when you checkraise the turn?

Malachii · #3 07-31-2005, 10:57 PM

Part of my problem with this play is that you're investing $85 to gain $57.

57x = 85-85x
(57 + 85)X = 85
X= 85 / (85+57)
X=.0598

So your play has to work over 60% of the time to be profitable. I didn't include the probability that you'll improve on the river.

TheWorstPlayer · #4 07-31-2005, 11:02 PM

Could be +EV with any two, but I think it's more likely pissing away money.

Go_Blue88 · #5 07-31-2005, 11:03 PM

this line looks a lot like a bluff to me. you're probably only going to get overcards to fold here. if i'm villian i can't figure out what you're representing. it just doesn't feel right to me. maybe a set would play like this, but wouldn't villian call you here with an overpair? (i would, or i might raise) you're going to need to make a big river bluff if he does.

Slappz · #6 07-31-2005, 11:24 PM

If he calls this bet your done with the hand?

swolfe · #7 07-31-2005, 11:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls this bet your done with the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely:

Turn: ($82) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $60, UTG calls $60.

River: ($202) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Final Pot: $202

Go_Blue88 · #8 07-31-2005, 11:34 PM

i think that this is a really cool play if you follow through on the river. i don't understand the point of your turn lead if you don't follow up on the river...

TheWorstPlayer · #9 07-31-2005, 11:34 PM

He's a wimp for not vb his JJ/QQ against you ten.

swolfe · #10 07-31-2005, 11:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's a wimp for not vb his JJ/QQ against you ten.

[/ QUOTE ]

true, but maybe i had a fearsome table image [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]