30/60 River checkraise bluff

[PokerMike]

He is 58/14/1.4 over 298hands(these stats are filtered for 7+ players, so he is much looser/aggro 5handed)

Is it just me or do really horrible players always go psycho spewing on boards like these? I've called down with Q hi and won on a similar board vs a similar opponent this week. This time i had no showdown value. As bad as these players are, they won't showdown Q/J hi here....right?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks.

He has no pair, no A, probably no K.

Flop: (2.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (2.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises...</font>

Or is this just bleeding chips?

[Alobar]

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I've called down with Q hi and won on a similar board vs a similar opponent this week.

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As bad as these players are, they won't showdown Q/J hi here....right?

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looks like you answered your own question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I fold the flop

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've called down with Q hi and won on a similar board vs a similar opponent this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
As bad as these players are, they won't showdown Q/J hi here....right?

[/ QUOTE ]


looks like you answered your own question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I fold the flop

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I might bet at the flop. but, yes, once checked, I fold.

Surf

[Alobar]

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I might bet at the flop. but, yes, once checked, I fold.



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betting at the flop here does no good. He will never fold, and your hand sucks major ass. So your choices are to run a bluff, or pray you hit your 6 outter in a ridiculously small pot. Neither of which will show a long term profit IMO

[PokerMike]

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I might bet at the flop. but, yes, once checked, I fold.



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betting at the flop here does no good. He will never fold, and your hand sucks major ass. So your choices are to run a bluff, or pray you hit your 6 outter in a ridiculously small pot. Neither of which will show a long term profit IMO

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Right, all that stuff makes sense. This really is an isolated incident, and i just went with the read instead of looking at the size of the pot.

[Surfbullet]

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betting at the flop here does no good. He will never fold, and your hand sucks major ass.

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Yeahhh... you're right. He might fold once in awhile IMO, but not enough.

Surf

[PokerMike]

Not really. The really horribleplayers will consistently call down with A and maybe K hi, but they know enough not to call down with Q or J hi. Because i did it in one situation(double paired board vs a SB limper with huge PFR) doesn't mean it was wrong or that bad players do it.

Am i making any sense?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. The really horribleplayers will consistently call down with A and maybe K hi, but they know enough not to call down with Q or J hi. Because i did it in one situation(double paired board vs a SB limper with huge PFR) doesn't mean it was wrong or that bad players do it.

Am i making any sense?

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You are making sense. The problem here isn't the inability to fold another player's Q or J-hi, it is that you will never fold out enough hands to make up what you wagered.

Surf

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. The really horribleplayers will consistently call down with A and maybe K hi, but they know enough not to call down with Q or J hi. Because i did it in one situation(double paired board vs a SB limper with huge PFR) doesn't mean it was wrong or that bad players do it.

Am i making any sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt mean you were a bad player for calling down with Q high, I mean the guy you beat obviously had worse than Q high, so apparently they will go to showdown with that. I know the situation is different here, betting as opposed to calling. But like you said, bad players get stupid on boards like these.

Even if the river bluff here will show a profit, when you factor all the bets you put into the pot to get to this spot, I can't even see it close to being a winner enough. I know each decision is independant, but you obviously had planned on bluffing this much sooner than the river, so for that sake, its all one decision.

[Surfbullet]

You are clearly spewing chips here. While this may work, you are wagering 3 to win 5 on a bluff - that means it has to work more than 60% of the time, which I do not see happening.

Surf