How am I supposed to know that this is +EV?

[suited_ace]

I've been going over all my HHs with SNGPT, and there's always a couple of spots that I missed. In a few of them, I actually thought about it but never had the guts to shove it, but there are a bunch of them that just don't seem logical to me.

I have at least 1 spot like this per tourney, so I've been wondering what can I do to take the right decision when I have a hand like the one below.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter

Button (t1160)
Hero (t1070)
BB (t2240)
UTG (t5530)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

ICM says this is a push, and it's not even close.

I've been able to figure out most +EV spots on my own, but I still struggle with spots like these. What's your thought process on this spot?

[dmmikkel]

For me this depends on how tight BB is of course, when blinds go up and my own table image.

ICM is only a helpful tool, not always the correct play.

[Amything]

I think it's a good question. I miss alot of these same spots where I don't have QT+ and chicken out. Any particular thinking behind auto-pushing a hand like that?

[ilya]

Something like "I have under 10xbb, it's been folded to me in the SB, the BB is neither desperate nor huge, there are no glaring short stacks, I have two cards that are not low unsuited connectors....ok time to push!"

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
Something like "I have under 10xbb, it's been folded to me in the SB, the BB is neither desperate nor huge, there are no glaring short stacks, I have two cards that are not low unsuited connectors....ok time to push!"

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think this is a push?

[lastchance]

There is trash, and then there is pushable trash like 87o. In spots like these, you need to distinguish from a hand like 32o and a hand like T2o.

T2o is an autoshove, while 32o is a fold.

There's a world of difference between a hand like 87o and 53o. This is the spot where it becomes obvious how much better a hand 87o is.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Something like "I have under 10xbb, it's been folded to me in the SB, the BB is neither desperate nor huge, there are no glaring short stacks, I have two cards that are not low unsuited connectors....ok time to push!"

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think this is a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops sorry I just meant "low unsuited cards." Like 53o, 42o, 32o.
87o is a medium connector! push push push!

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
There is trash, and then there is pushable trash like 87o.

[/ QUOTE ]

I L'edMAO.

[ QUOTE ]
In spots like these, you need to distinguish from a hand like 32o and a hand like T2o.

T2o is an autoshove, while 32o is a fold.

There's a world of difference between a hand like 87o and 53o. This is the spot where it becomes obvious how much better a hand 87o is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: 33.9305 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 32o }
Hand 2: 66.0695 % [ 00.66 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 37.2705 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { 87o }
Hand 2: 62.7295 % [ 00.63 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 36.1513 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { 53o }
Hand 2: 63.8487 % [ 00.64 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 31.5222 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { T2o }
Hand 2: 68.4778 % [ 00.68 00.00 ] { AQo }

There's isn't so much of a difference between the hands you mentioned. FWIW, ICM says this is a spot where I should be pushing w/ any 2 cards.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is trash, and then there is pushable trash like 87o.

[/ QUOTE ]

I L'edMAO.

[ QUOTE ]
In spots like these, you need to distinguish from a hand like 32o and a hand like T2o.

T2o is an autoshove, while 32o is a fold.

There's a world of difference between a hand like 87o and 53o. This is the spot where it becomes obvious how much better a hand 87o is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: 33.9305 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 32o }
Hand 2: 66.0695 % [ 00.66 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 37.2705 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { 87o }
Hand 2: 62.7295 % [ 00.63 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 36.1513 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { 53o }
Hand 2: 63.8487 % [ 00.64 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 31.5222 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { T2o }
Hand 2: 68.4778 % [ 00.68 00.00 ] { AQo }

There's isn't so much of a difference between the hands you mentioned. FWIW, ICM says this is a spot where I should be pushing w/ any 2 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]


The glaring flaw in your analysis is that your opponent's call range isn't

"AQ."

Against a loose calling range, the difference between 87o and 32o might be as much as much as 35% vs. 30%. Also, holding an 8 and a 7 makes it somewhat less likely that your opponent will have a calling-caliber hand than holding a 3 and a 2.

[Matt R.]

The main concern in a spot like this is that you are the shortest stack at the table and must accumulate chips. Especially since you only have 7x the BB. Obviously, you're in the best position to steal as well, and you have plenty of chips for a lot of FE.

I just think the main thing to look at to recognize a push any 2 spot (in a situation like this) is when the stack sizes at the table relative to yours are such that you need to accumulate chips to stay "even" with the field. You aren't in a position where you can wait and fold your way into the money, so you need to compete for the blinds in good opportunities such as this one to stay afloat. Even though it's still vague and knowing exactly what to look for comes with experience, the question I always ask is "Do I NEED chips now to stay competitive, or can I wait for others to bust to increase my share of the prize pool?" Your example is a situation where you need those chips.