$215s - Bubble Spot I Hated

[Unarmed]

Maybe this is a dead easy call for some.
Villain is stupid tight.
Guy to my right has folded his last two SBs for me.
No one here understands keeping the short stack alive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

Button (t3055)
SB (t3940)
Hero (t1495)
UTG (t1510)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG Pushes.

[curtains]

I think I would wince and call. It's really painful but you just have to, way too many hands he would allin that A4o beats, and if you fold he gets a 2-1 chip lead.

[WebGuySteve]

I would probably also call here, though, I can see the argument for folding and pushing any 2 at him on the next hand as he will probably fold a lot of hands since he just won the previous one. This is especially so given your read.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is stupid tight.
Guy to my right has folded his last two SBs for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't these two factors possibly be enough to turn this into a fold?

[ChrisV]

Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[ChuckNorris]

I think that at least in 55's and lower even ridiculously tight players (although maybe not some of the tightest of the ridiculously tight [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) start pushing a lot of hands in villains place here. Looks like a call to me.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

F*ck I'm happy you're posting again Chris [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I would fold here, too. I didn't realize that was why until I read Chris' explanation... but, yep.

The problem with calling with a weak ace is that you can't ever be a 60% favorite. Even on the off chance he has a weaker ace, you still aren't a 60% favorite. On the other hand, calling against a wide-range pusher with a hand like K-Ts gives you a reasonable chance of being more than a 60% favorite (vs. Q-9 or something)... while still being only slightly worse than 50-50 vs. a weak ace.

I think this is something that a lot of players don't understand well (despite Eastbay's kickass work on the topic). When you have to make a tough calling decision on the bubble, it's not merely about whether your hand rates to be ahead... but rather how likely you are to be significantly ahead or behind. A weak ace is a really poor calling hand in this regard, because of it's up-side limitations and it's downside liability. You can very easily be a 30% dog (v. A-big), without any chance to be a 60% favorite.

Irieguy

[Newt_Buggs]

Unless UTG is terrible I doubt that you're only 33% against his hand range. What do you think he's doing if he gets delt something like QJ, folding? Its possible, but I wouldn't count on it

I still fold though

[curtains]

On second thought I now lean towards folding, but it does depend on some things.