AQ on the bubble

bluewilde · #1 07-21-2005, 02:58 PM

Don't have the HH, but here's the situation

Stacks are around 3000, 2500, 1500 and 1000.
I'm in the big blind (300) with AQo, guy who's been stealing pushed (1500) from UTG, folds to me (2500).

I think, because of his hand range, this is a good call, but how do the stacks affect it. Shorty has just over 2 more orbits, do I wait, or try to take a chip lead to set myself up for 1st?

tigerite · #2 07-21-2005, 03:00 PM

I think this is a must call. I haven't checked on SNGPT though.

Edit: Ok, just did. As I suspected, even if he's pushing with 'average' hands i.e. 44, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+ it's a +0.9% EV call. I think his range is far looser than this. More like the loose range which is +2.6% EV.

morgan180 · #3 07-21-2005, 04:38 PM

i think you have to call as well - being UTG he knows he's paying a huge blind next hand. he's probably picked up a weak Ace or KQ,KJ, QJ or TT-44 and thinks that he can pick up the blinds with a push before he has to pay them out.

the majority of the time you'll be a big favorite with the hand and will put you in a strong position to win.

btw - i insta-call. (i play 11s)

Vetstadium · #4 07-21-2005, 04:58 PM

Agreed........I like the call.

Ixnert · #5 07-21-2005, 05:06 PM

Definitely call.

A related question here is how small shorty's stack needs to be before you fold here. My instinct is that he'd have to have less than 1.5 BBs (so that the blinds would eat him on the next orbit), or else know UTG to be extremely tight before you even think about it. And I'm not at all sure that you do it even then. But I don't have SNGPT (for shame, I know), so I can't check my instincts easily...

bluewilde · #6 07-21-2005, 05:29 PM

Yeah, I was wondering if shorty had 700 or 400 how that would change it. Villain had 66 and I failed to improve. Shorty went out next hand and I sorta died on the inside and mumbled "doh"