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#1
07-21-2005, 01:23 AM
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Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
It's HU on the turn, and I'm last to act. My opponent has a flush draw, and the pot is 4.5BB.
If my opponent bets, he's laying himself 4.5-1, which is +EV for him. If I raise, knowing that he will call, am I forcing him to put in 2 bets to win 6.5, making his initial bet -EV, or am I just offering him better EV by offering 6.5-1 on the call? 
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#2
07-21-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
[ QUOTE ]
It's HU on the turn, and I'm last to act. My opponent has a flush draw, and the pot is 4.5BB. If my opponent bets, he's laying himself 4.5-1, which is +EV for him. Heads up, both of these bets are actually -EV for him; he's putting in 50% of the money while expecting to get much less than that back. On the other hand, he would still be correct to call your raise; even though he'd rather not have that extra bet go in there, as it loses his money, he still has a positive expectation for the hand as a whole (because he's getting 6.5-1 pot odds to call). If I raise, knowing that he will call, am I forcing him to put in 2 bets to win 6.5, making his initial bet -EV, or am I just offering him better EV by offering 6.5-1 on the call? [/ QUOTE ]
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#3
07-21-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
??
If I raise, knowing that he will call, am I forcing him to put in 2 bets to win 6.5, making his initial bet -EV, or am I just offering him better EV by offering 6.5-1 on the call?
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#4
07-21-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
The way to think about the raising the turn is to consider that out of the 4 bets that go into the pot on the turn your equity is about 80 percent. You make a ton of money from all the money invested on the turn.
If your opponent knows you will at least call as an approx 4 to 1 favorite he is making a big mistake by betting. He is correct to protect his equity in the pot by investing a smaller amount by CALLING. His betting is only correct if there is a good chance that you will fold to that bet.
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#5
07-21-2005, 12:56 PM
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Re: Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
[ QUOTE ]
It's HU on the turn, and I'm last to act. My opponent has a flush draw, and the pot is 4.5BB. If my opponent bets, he's laying himself 4.5-1, which is +EV for him. If I raise, knowing that he will call, am I forcing him to put in 2 bets to win 6.5, making his initial bet -EV, or am I just offering him better EV by offering 6.5-1 on the call? [/ QUOTE ] He has 4.5 – 1 pot odds, on a 4-1 draw, so yes, he has the pot odds to call, however, if he knows you will not fold, then it is strongly incorrect for him to bet, as he is only getting 1-1 on the new bet, on a 4-1 draw.. and of course you might raise.. You MUST raise here which will still give him pot odds to call, but when the pot is that big, there is nothing you can do about it. The fact is you are a 4-1 favourite to win this pot, so you want to try to get as much as you can in a pot that you will win 80% of the time.
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#6
07-21-2005, 02:07 PM
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Re: Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
Great answers, both of you. I get it now, and have found a signifigant leak of mine.
I routinely bet with hands HU that I would call a single bet with. I can see why this is bad, now. If there were five other players in the pot, I can bet for value because I've got an equity edge on the money going into the pot.
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#7
07-22-2005, 06:20 AM
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Re: Simple flush draw question regarding EV.
[ QUOTE ]
If there were five other players in the pot, I can bet for value because I've got an equity edge on the money going into the pot. [/ QUOTE ] Hi Dad! Been a while. My take on this: If you bet here and the guy to your left raises you it's very bad for you. And your equity may not be as good as you think: Let's say you have KQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the board is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you know at least one of your opponents have an A (very likely). You don't have alot of equity here. Against a guy with A7 you only win 20% of the time. And what about the others? Your equity is even less if they call (which is a must to make a value bet worth it). If you have overcards to the table you have some more equity of course but betting draws for value on the turn is not easy. If you know they will not fold.
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