22 - how big a hand to fold here?

gumpzilla · #1 07-20-2005, 12:00 PM

Stars 22. The chip situation: chip leader has 5300 chips, I have 4100, three players with 1300-1500. I'm in the SB, and chip leader is the BB. I've been pretty aggressive, but built up most of my chipstack picking off a bluff on a board with four to a flush from one of the now short-stacks. I pick up A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], it's folded to me.

gumpzilla: raises 225 to 375
Villain: calls 225
*** FLOP *** [3c 8s 5s]
gumpzilla: bets 600
Villain: calls 600
*** TURN *** [3c 8s 5s] [As]
gumpzilla: checks
Villain: bets 4355 and is all-in

I don't think he has a flush. I have 3100 behind, there's basically 5000 in the pot. What's the smallest A you call with here? If you won't call with an A, are you firing a blocker on the turn instead?

bluefeet · #2 07-20-2005, 12:32 PM

i really believe you had to bet the turn here. your hand is starting to smell like a steal 2.5x PF (i think), a large flop bet, followed by a 'check'--"ok i'm done" on the turn. the problem is he could be pushing with absolutely anything. at this level it's just too hard to tell what you've run into. a donk that pushed simply because you 'quit', a massive overbet while actually holding a nut - hoping you're slowing your now hit ace, etc., etc., etc. i've seen many a chip dog defiantly call a flop bet after being raised into, just to call uncle on the turn and lay it down with a follow-up bet. personally, i would have hit the turn another t1000. here i think you have to give it up while you're still very healthy.

gumpzilla · #3 07-20-2005, 02:04 PM

Bump.

schwza · #4 07-20-2005, 02:11 PM

this is a tough hand. i know i would raise pre-flop, and i'm pretty sure i would be the flop (i'd bet 450-500, fwiw), but after that, it's not so clear.

on the turn, you have 3k behind in a 2k pot. i'd bet 1200 and call a push. checking is unappealing b/c you don't want to give a free card to a spade, or straight draw, smaller 1 pair, etc.

given the check and push, i think i'd let it go. there's a pretty good chance you'd be folding the best hand, but i think that icm considerations make it a fold. a pretty tough fold, though. i'd call if you had the 9s or if your hand were AQ.