Is this a clear push?

[DMACM]

11s. I know I cant fold into the money and this is a good hot and cold hand. Clear push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Hero (t915)
SB (t865)
BB (t4955)
UTG (t1265)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t715.

Flop: (t1015) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t1015) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t1015) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t1015

[runner4life7]

yes

[lastchance]

Clear, unless BB is 00ber-fish.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Clear, unless BB is 00ber-fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he is... this is +EV if the BB has a wide range or even if his range is only the hands that dominate you because you pick up the blinds so often.

[SammyKid11]

Yeah, I think you gotta go here. BB is so big that he may not fold as much as you'd like...then again, he may very easily call you with junk and double you up. Either way, it's moving day.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Clear, unless BB is 00ber-fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he is... this is +EV if the BB has a wide range or even if his range is only the hands that dominate you because you pick up the blinds so often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I really don't think this is +EV if BB is one of those people that is calling 70% of hands. This does happen.

[BadMongo]

Hmmm... Initially, I thought this was a clear push as well. However, I just plugged the numbers into eastbay's program, and it disagrees with us.

For this to be just a break even play, the blinds would have to be very tight for the 11s - calling with only 15% of hands or less. This range only includes 33+, A7o+, A4s+, KTs+. Given the fact that this is a low buy-in tourny, and the BB has a mountain of chips, there is no way their range is anywhere near that tight.

So it looks like folding is the right play.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is +EV if the BB has a wide range

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I agree that this is probably a push, but I think it's at least kind of close. And if the BB's range is wide, say top 25% (22+, A2+, KTo+, K8s+, QTs+), then according to Eastbay's tool a push becomes slightly -EV.


Would BB ever have a range that wide? I guess it's read-dependent, meaning both your read of BB and also BB's read of you: BB might think he can get away with running over the table even if he folds here; however if he calls and wins he's in a really dominating spot. So dominating that he might risk a wide calling range.

Yikes, do I lose all credibility by screwing up the quote function on my first post?

I've lurked for awhile--glad to be finally diving in.