can i still fold on river?

[J-Lo]

villain was quite loose to this point, but hadn't bluffed big w/ nothing
***** Hand History for Game 2376716687 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:14003314 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Sunday, July 17, 01:15:59 EDT 2005
Table Table 22362 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 4: raiderfan441 ( $1408 )
Seat 5: TURTLE_TOP ( $2050 )
Seat 6: Bodar ( $4117 )
Seat 7: LooneyPlayer ( $625 )
Seat 9: booradlye83 ( $1800 )
Trny:14003314 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to booradlye83 [ 2d 2c ]
raiderfan441 folds.
TURTLE_TOP folds.
Bodar raises [200].
LooneyPlayer folds.
>You have options at Table 14214 Table!.
>You have options at Table 14212 Table!.
booradlye83 calls [100].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 2h, 3h ]
booradlye83 checks.
Bodar bets [100].
booradlye83 raises [300].
>You have options at Table 14036 Table!.
Bodar calls [200].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
>You have options at Table 14214 Table!.
booradlye83 bets [450].
Bodar calls [450].
** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]
booradlye83 checks.
>You have options at Table 14036 Table!.
Bodar bets [850].
booradlye83 is all-In [850]
Bodar shows [ 6s, Ad ] a straight, three to seven.
booradlye83 shows [ 2d, 2c ] three of a kind, twos.
Bodar wins 3650 chips from the main pot with a straight, three to seven.
booradlye83 finished in fifth place.
booradlye83 has left the table.

[The Don]

Here is my line of thinking...
-The pot is 2850
-It is 850 to call
3.3-1 pot odds

If you think you have a ~23% chance to win this hand it is a call. I fold this though. Strength on the river after passive play on earlier streets always means strength. In this case a strait. What else would he be making this bet with? Surely he is check calling an overpair or something of that nature. Decisions like this are why I suggest SnG players get some shorthand NL cash game experience. It will get you into this mode of thinking.

[durron597]

BAD BEAT POST.

I would raise a little more on the flop so that you can bet more on the turn.

[J-Lo]

it's only level 4 and i have 850, i would be in decent shape to do some damage w/ 850 chips... no? i shouldn't have posted results....

[durron597]

Stop looking for reasons to fold sets and start another SnG.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]

I would raise a little more on the flop so that you can bet more on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I would make it around a 600 raise and push the rest in on the turn no matter what comes out.

[curtains]

Bet more on the turn to make this an easier river decision. There of course other advantages to betting more on the turn when the pot is so big and you are on the bubble.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

Bet more on the turn to make this an easier river decision. There of course other advantages to betting more on the turn when the pot is so big and you are on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I'm all-in on the turn. Big overbet but whatever, let him make the tough decisions, not you. If you're going to pay him off regardless of the river card this is 100% the correct move b/c betting 450 is giving him correct impled odds to call = bad.

[J-Lo]

Can someone show me the math behind unarmed's response saying he's gettin enough implied odds? i bet 450 into a 1050 pot. With 850 left behind for me. So 850+1050+450=23000. 2300/450= 5.11:1. Bareley good enough for a flush or open ended straight draw. All he had was a gutshot with one card to come.

The more and more i think about it, it IS a bad beat post. Durron was right. Did he not make a terrible mistake? Shouldn't I be happy he's calling w/ a gutshot-- or do other bubble principles take away ICM points from both me and villain which go to the rest of the table-- is the villain gaining anything by calling down w/o odds/implied odds to a gutshot, because he has the chiplead?

edit: It's funny how u start to question your own plays/decisions in the midst of your first 45+ buyin downswing.

[Jay36489]

Those odds are correct for a flush draw and even an openender. I think you are assuming the average player plays closer to correct then they do. This is a BAD assumption. Sometimes you need to make it painfully obvious that they shouldn't continue. And if they call a push with a gutshot you've made them make the biggest mistake possible, enter the fundamenatal theorem of poker...