an easy turn fold

[donger]

right?
Villain is 30/12/1.7 and checkraises a normal amount of time (2.6). From my dealings with him, he's too passive both preflop and postflop, and calls raises too frequently from the SB. I never really mind seeing this guy at my table.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls.

I'm thinking this could be A9, T9, etc, but more likely, he's pushing an equity edge with a flush draw or straight/flush draw kind of combo.

Turn: (8.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero folds.

What can i beat here? If he's pumping a FD, it just got there, otherwise, i'm still toast to a set or two pair. If I whiff the river, I will probably be priced into calling anyway, so I'm basically getting ~5:1 effective odds to call down, and i seriously doubt I'm good against this guy more than 1 time in 10 here.

Final Pot: 11.20 BB

[Rubeskies]

You have to pay 2 bets to win what will be a 12 bet pot on the river. I highly doubt you are good here 1 in 6 against this opponent. On top of that you will often be drawing dead, sometimes drawing to 2 outs, and occasionly will have some counterfeit outs but I doubt this opponent is agressive enough to raise two pair on this scary looking board except sometimes with exactly T9. I don't think you will improve to the best hand enough here to make a call profitable.

This reasoning would push it to a fold for me.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
This reasoning would push it to a fold for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think it's more shoot-it-out-of-a-cannon than push, heh. Not sure why I posted a hand this boring.