The bubble, 4's, and me

Jimbobobb · #1 07-14-2005, 02:19 AM

Party 100 +9

Blinds 200/400, 4 players

Hero is BB with 1200 chips (800 after posting)

UTG ~6400
Button ~1200
SB ~ 1k chips after posting

UTG has been acting a tad strange since the bubble began, been about 5 hands and he has folded every single one. Not exactly your normal huge stack behavior in this position.

UTG raises to 1300
2 folds

Hero looks down at the 4 of clubs, and his buddy the 4 of spades.

Hero.....?

Nottom · #2 07-14-2005, 03:09 AM

I'd call. But only becasue this was me and I did.

lastchance · #3 07-14-2005, 03:26 AM

Jesus. Man, I wish I could fold here, but I don't. I call.

usmhot · #4 07-14-2005, 05:06 AM

5 folds in a row? This guy was waiting for the three short-stackers to fight it out for a position ITM. Now he's got something that he can use to force someone out - he's put an all-in amount in there for all of the short-stackers.
I'd put him on a face pair, or AK/AQ/AJ/A10. I'd fold like a cheap suit.

tigerite · #5 07-14-2005, 05:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party 100 +9

Blinds 200/400, 4 players

Hero is BB with 1200 chips (800 after posting)

UTG ~6400
Button ~1200
SB ~ 1k chips after posting

UTG has been acting a tad strange since the bubble began, been about 5 hands and he has folded every single one. Not exactly your normal huge stack behavior in this position.

UTG raises to 1300
2 folds

Hero looks down at the 4 of clubs, and his buddy the 4 of spades.

Hero.....?

[/ QUOTE ]

closes his eyes and calls. Yes, he probably has overs, but you don't have a choice, because the big stack is to your right, so you have approximately zero FE on the next hand when you're in SB, even _if_ the two other small stacks fold, as you'll have 600 chips left. Even allowing for another hand or two after that you're pushing over UTG. If one of the other stacks was on much less then this is a fold, as it is, I cannot bring myself to fold this. Not in this situation.

curtains · #6 07-14-2005, 05:23 AM

I would definitely fold, especially if hes not playing aggressively. Sometimes in life you have to do whatever you can to squirm into the money, and I think this is one of those times.

johnnybeef · #7 07-14-2005, 05:34 AM

cmon, you are by no means dead here. fold.

wiggs73 · #8 07-14-2005, 08:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I would definitely fold, especially if hes not playing aggressively. Sometimes in life you have to do whatever you can to squirm into the money, and I think this is one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. He either has an overpair or overcards, that much you can be sure of. Being that you're gauranteed to see all 5 cards, I don't see how this call can be +EV.

durron597 · #9 07-14-2005, 10:28 AM

With a tight UTG, and three other similar sized stacks, I think this is a fold.

Nottom · #10 07-14-2005, 01:28 PM

I think the descriprion of UTG might be a little misleading here. I wouldn't call UTG tight, I would say more that he doesn't really understand how to use the big stack and was probably getting bad cards the past orbit or so. Prior to the bubble he was constantly getting involved with marginal hands and catching.

The other 2 small stacks seemed content to fold into the money (or at least wait for a big hand).

I wanted to fold, ICM says this is a fold versus pretty much anything that isn't any 2 (which by his previous actions is unlikely), but I also think that if I win here I have a substaintially greater chance of winning that ICM says an even if I don't I'm way behind in the blind-off race when I fold.

Does any of this influence anyone's decision here?