Weak 99

nervous · #1 07-13-2005, 04:33 PM

Party Poker 3/6 (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font> Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3bets, Hero caps

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot:

BB is 88/25/2.7

ChicagoTroy · #2 07-13-2005, 04:37 PM

Yep.

imported_ncray · #3 07-13-2005, 04:53 PM

Any reads on BB? If we assume fairly liberal blind-defense 3-betting standards, say he will do this with AA-88, AK-AT, KQ-KJ. Ways of getting AA-88 (6 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 6 + 1 + 6), ways of getting AK-AT (12 + 16 + 12 + 16), ways of getting KQ-KJ (12 + 9). This is 108 combinations. You are ahead of only 88 and AQ (6 + 16 = 22 ways). Assume you call down to showdown, so it costs you 2.5BBs to win 6.75BBs, so you have to be good 27% of the time.

Against KK, JJ = 6 combinations, you have 2 outs and will improve (2/45)(43/44) + (43/45)(2/44) + (2/45)*(1/44) = 8.8% of the time. You win .5 times.
Against the other 108-22-6=80 combinations that you are behind, you have about 3.5 outs and will improve about 14.5% of the time. You win 11.6 times.

88 has 2 outs vs you and will improve 8.8% of the time
You win 5.5 times
AQ has 10 outs and will improve 25% of the time
You win 12 times

Total: .5 + 11.6 + 5.5 + 12 = 29.6
29.6/108 = 27.4% vs your pot odds of 27%
This means it would be a breakeven call to the river. If he was more liberal in 3-betting, you should definitely call. Otherwise, fold. I may have made a few mistakes along the way, as I was in a rush. Also, I've made a few assumptions in order to make these calculations.

Alobar · #4 07-13-2005, 04:57 PM

wow

Jeff W · #5 07-13-2005, 05:10 PM

I calldown. This opponent is obviously a maniac if those stats are accurate.

imported_ncray · #6 07-13-2005, 05:12 PM

Oops, I didn't notice the stats on BB. Damn... Uhh, well just loosen the numbers up by a bit, which would result in a pretty easy call.

nervous · #7 07-13-2005, 05:25 PM

Wow, that's a lot of work.

I actually didn't even look at the BB's stats while playing the hand. (Maybe I shold play less tables)

BTW, Jeff get on irc.