Fire again with this draw?

[cartman]

Villain is loose and at least average aggression. He often peels the flop with very little but consequently has to fold his single overcard or whatever on the turn. He never folds a pair heads up, sometimes folds Ace high heads up, and is capable of waiting until the turn to checkraise a flopped pair.


PREFLOP: Hero open-raises in the CO with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 folds, Villain calls in the BB.

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

TURN: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero?


What do you guys think?

Would your line change if the flop K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] were a 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

If you bet the turn and get called, what is your river plan if checked to?


Thanks,
Cartman

[J.R.]

how often will he bet the river with a hand worse than JT high if you check behind?

[Nick C]

I would most likely fire again on the turn, on both the actual board and the one with the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] you asked about.

I don't want to get checkraised, but I'm not going to be heartbroken if I do.

I think my fold equity is probably a little better on the king-high board than the alternate rag board, but I think I mind a checkraise less on the rag board (since I'm not as pessimistic about my pair outs following a turn checkraise on the rag board).

If just called, I would give up and check behind on the river if I missed. The (actual) board isn't too draw-heavy, and a bet really seems aimed specifically at a higher flush draw, which is possible but probably isn't what Villain has (plus, he only sometimes folds ace-high).

I'd probably give up after missing if the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] were the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], too, but I am a little more tempted to fire again, in that instance. (There are more overcards Villain could be playing with, and any 5 or 4 would have given him a gutshot.)

[GetThere1Time]

I'm betting both the turn and the river. If he's a habitual peeler capable of laying down a high card then give him the chance.

On the turn, when you bet and he calls he likely doesn't have a king so you're at worst looking at 15 outs to the best hand if you're behind. On the river, if checked to I'm still betting getting 5:1 since you said he'd fold A-high. If he never folds A-high, I'd just check behind and showdown my nut-jack-no-pair.

[cartman]

I don't know with regard to this specific opponent. Would you consider calling with JT high even if he autobets the river regardless of his cards when checked behind on the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

I would definitely bet the turn for sure in both cases. You have enough fold equity. I would always check the river with the king on the flop, with the 6 it's closer and I might fire another bet if he's the type to peel flop and turn with king or queen high.

[J.R.]

I don't think u can call the river unimproved, so checking the turn is problematic if he bluffs the river. and given how loose he seems to peel flops, there are many worse hands than j high he can hold on the turn.

other than q high or maybe an A he isn't going to fold a better hand on the turn, so there isn't much "bluff equity" in a turn bet, but there is some "betting with the presently best hand so he doesn't sense weakness and take the pot away form you on the river". the more honestly he plays the river the more a check is palatable v this type of player. and given if your hand is best he has like 4-6 outs (depending on suits) and the pot is 3BBs its not a huge mistake to let him have a free card, especially the more likely he is to check-raise you with better hands on the turn.

if the player was weaker and there were more "better" hands that he would fold to a turn bet then betting the turn as a "bluff" seems better.

that all said he doesn't need to fold the turn very often with a better hand to make betting correct given you have like 30ish percent equity when beat, so long as he doesn't check-raise you too often

[cartman]

Would you guys be more inclined to check the turn with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] instead of J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

If so, would your plan be to call the river bet?


Thanks,
Cartman