Magical thinking?

Net Warrior · #1 02-13-2003, 07:25 PM

Pre-flop, cards can and do run good, bad, average, or anywhere in between. Time periods for these occurrences can be long, short, or anywhere in between. When running bad (or good for that matter) you sit and play with the expectation that things will change.

Now I've been on a 3-4 session run of sub-average cards, breaking even or losing slightly. There's nothing unusual here. Yesterday I couldn't get a seat in my usual game and I decided to go down in limit while I waited. Well, the deck really hit me and after 1 orbit I was 15 bb's ahead. I'm pretty sure that this had very little to do with the competition. I thought, "darn, why didn't this happen at my usual limit".

So here is the question. Was this run ready to happen, no matter where I sat? Was it specific to that situation? Both? Neither? I'm not sure I'm asking this right but I think you get the idea.

pudley4 · #2 02-14-2003, 11:09 AM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Was this run ready to happen, no matter where I sat?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, runs are never "ready to happen" . You got those cards due to that specific seat, that specific game, with the dealer shuffling exactly that way, with the players mucking their cards exactly that way, etc...If someone else had sat down there, they might not have gotten the same cards as you.

Just because you've been getting bad cards for a while, it doesn't mean that you're more likely to get good cards next time you sit down.

If you would have sat down in the next seat over, you might have continued to get crappy cards.