what are the odds?

Pocket Trips · #1 07-10-2005, 01:28 AM

Just had a 5 card draw hand that was unbelievable...I was dealt an ace high flush in a PL game and raised a maniac all in .. I of course stood pat and the maniac drew 3 so i figured I was in great shape... WRONG!!!!

This maniac drew 3 after going all-in and drew 4 god damn aces!!!!!!!!!!

what are the odds on actually drawing 4 aces in a 5 handed 5 card draw game.. 1st assuming you have a pair to start with and 2nd if you have just one ace... I'm too pissd off to do this math right now

OrianasDaad · #2 07-10-2005, 02:42 AM

How many cards wild?

Pocket Trips · #3 07-10-2005, 04:40 AM

no wild cards

pzhon · #4 07-10-2005, 05:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just had a 5 card draw hand that was unbelievable

[/ QUOTE ]
You had an ace high flush, and your opponent had 4 aces? You are right, no one believes you.

Pocket Trips · #5 07-10-2005, 05:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just had a 5 card draw hand that was unbelievable

[/ QUOTE ]
You had an ace high flush, and your opponent had 4 aces? You are right, no one believes you.

[/ QUOTE ]

doh! ok ok so i messed up.. it was a king high flush... happy now?

Stephen Gray · #6 07-10-2005, 08:51 AM

Sounds like a funny deck to me!

Pocket Trips · #7 07-10-2005, 12:30 PM

I am not one of those idiots who claim after every bad beat that the site has to be rigged, but I lost 3 hands in a row that were incredible...

On back to back hands I was dealt trips(8's and Q's) and on BOTH hands the exact same player had trip aces

So 1st these 3 hands follewed by the quad aces hand a round or so later are going to keep me from ever playing 5 card draw on this site again

LetYouDown · #8 07-10-2005, 12:32 PM

Assuming he were drawing 3 no matter what, and you hold a K high flush.

If he held A-A:
43/C(45,3) = .303%

If he held A-X:
1/C(45,3) = .007%

BruceZ · #9 07-10-2005, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he were drawing 3 no matter what, and you hold a K high flush.

If he held A-A:
43/C(45,3) = .303%

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 42 unknown cards, not 45, since we know that that there are only 2 aces out:

40/C(42,3) =~ 0.35% = 286-to-1

[ QUOTE ]
If he held A-X:
1/C(45,3) = .007%

[/ QUOTE ]

1/C(42,3) = 0.0087% =~ 11,479-to-1

LetYouDown · #10 07-10-2005, 12:55 PM

Yup...always forget the discards in draw. Thanks Bruce.