KJo, rag flop

deepsquat · #1 07-09-2005, 04:44 AM

Another hand out of PT, villain is loose and slightly aggressive. To tell u the truth when bets out he could have any part of this board or nothing, most likely a draw of some type.
Does anyone raise this flop or fold?

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 4.50 BB

@bsolute_luck · #2 07-09-2005, 09:58 AM

meh.. i'd probably would have reraised the flop. you have overcards to a pair (if he has one). and you have good position to check the river through.

TripleH68 · #3 07-09-2005, 10:43 AM

Touchy spot. The blinds have reason to suspect you are raising light here with CO posting.

You have six outs to improve to TPGK and you have a BDFD.

I am slightly more inclined to believe villain has a piece of this flop since he bet from the SB, but folding is not an option once the BB folds. You are getting 8:1 to see the turn and this guy could be testing you with garbage like A5s, 87s, etc.

I think you can play it either way, call or raise, pending your read.

Dave G. · #4 07-09-2005, 10:49 AM

That's a very scary river. If villain has a piece of the board like a pair, I think this river is worth a bluff. Of course, he needs to fold 20% of the time for this to yield a profit, so that depends on your read. Any 3 or 7 has a straight and there's the flush though, so villain would have good reason to fear you waking up on the river.

kapw7 · #5 07-09-2005, 11:00 AM

BB is out of the way and you only have a draw against a pair or a stronger draw (flush or straight). Raising can only get you a free card which is not that bad. I'm surprised he didn't bet the river. What would you do then?

Nfinity · #6 07-09-2005, 11:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That's a very scary river. If villain has a piece of the board like a pair, I think this river is worth a bluff. Of course, he needs to fold 20% of the time for this to yield a profit, so that depends on your read. Any 3 or 7 has a straight and there's the flush though, so villain would have good reason to fear you waking up on the river.

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This would have to be a very read dependant play.

First off we would have to be almost positive that that river card didn't improve him. Based on the River action after you check through on the Turn I doubt it, but I would want a read that he doesn't usually bet his draws on the Flop.

Second we have to know that villian is capable of folding. I would want to have seen at least a few hands that villian has folded in a similar position. Barring that, do you think that your average opponent is capable of folding this for 1 bet given the Turn action. I doubt it. I think the pot is too small.

I'm strongly in favor of a Flop raise.

Turn check is good, though you could make an argument for betting in this spot against certain opponents.

I would have folded to a bet on the River obviously, and I'm checking it through now.

moot · #7 07-09-2005, 11:30 AM

I see no good reason to raise this flop. Call the flop bet, fold the turn unimproved. Simple.

Our draw to a pair is very weak. Unless he's a total maniac we're probably behind. Yes, you sometimes get donk bets from the blinds, but usually the donk bet is with something like low pair weak kicker. It's still something that beats us.

Dave G. · #8 07-09-2005, 11:50 AM

Well, we're never going to be positive the river didn't improve him. He is no better off than us in that regard, he can't know if it helped us either. He could have been taking a shot at the pot with bottom pair or middle pair or something on the flop, and got scared by the fact that he was called.

I think an average (read: bad) opponent is definitely capable of folding here. A lot of players will look at their hopeless hand, realise they're easily beaten and dump it (even ignoring the fact that we raised PF and so a 3 or 7 is extremely unlikely).

That's an average player though, so yes some sort of read on his river tendancies helps here. If he folds a better hand just 20% of the time though, this bluff is profitable (and a better hand could even just be ace high at this point, which he is very likely to lay down to this scary river). He faces the same small chance of winning / small pot scenario that we did when deciding to bet.

Nfinity · #9 07-09-2005, 12:23 PM

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He is no better off than us in that regard, he can't know if it helped us either.

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The main difference is, he doesn't care. Your average micro-limit player is thinking about his cards and the board and close to nothing else.

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A lot of players will look at their hopeless hand, realise they're easily beaten and dump it

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On the Flop, yes. On the Turn, sometimes. On the River with the action you've showed him not likely. For 1 bet he gets to see your hand. The reason we don't make this sort of play very often in the micro-limits is because of the "Average" player. Thats why value-betting is so strongly enforced at these limits.

[ QUOTE ]
(even ignoring the fact that we raised PF and so a 3 or 7 is extremely unlikely).

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Even if villian was remotely cognizant of these kind of judgemnts, wouldn't that be even more of a reason for him to call us down?

[ QUOTE ]
If he folds a better hand just 20% of the time though, this bluff is profitable

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I don't even think we are folding villian 20% of the time, let alone having it be a better hand.

[ QUOTE ]
He faces the same small chance of winning / small pot scenario that we did when deciding to bet.

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Seriously, the only better hand I possibly think we are scaring away with this bet is A-high. We are risking 1BB to win 4.5BB to eliminate that miniscule range of holdings, as opposed to checking it through.

The correct application for this bet is on the Turn. We are not only forcing him to call a bet with a weak hand(if he has one) but we are sort of making the promise of a follow-up on the River. The place for a typical passive opponent to fold is the Turn, when bets get steeper and it's more likely you won't improve with just 1 more card to come. On the River, with anything your fish are more apt to call you down, just for those rare occasions that they get to catch you doing exactly what you are advocating.

I would go ahead and say bet the Turn, but I really think the advice is biased by this conversation, and villians River Check.

Watain · #10 07-09-2005, 02:42 PM

Maybe an informatinel raise - as Aaron W. wrote about some days ago - would be a good reason to raise on the flop.

This is very read dependent, but if you belieave he would bet out on the flop no matter what he had, then a raise could give achieve three things:

1) If he 3-betted then i would call and fold to a turn bet if nothing helped me, fearing a least he connected with the flop or having made a set or something evil like that.

2) He might call you flop-raise and check the turn, giving you the initavite. If so, I would assume that he either made a pair on the flop or had some decent overcards.

3)He might just throw it away, even though the chances are very slim.

But knowing he´s preflop tendencies would be nice, in order to rule out pocket pairs...

- A n00bish perspective

/Torben